The British government has casually released a list of all the greatest hazards to life, from another epidemic to volcanic ash.
The Home Office releases a “National Risk Register” every year that lists all of the “most serious threats to the UK.”
There are a good number. The government has identified just under 90 potential ways in which our way of life could be completely upended.
They range from’severe space weather’ and wildfires brought on by climate change to bacterium that kills trees and public unrest.
Each was given a rating by government officials based on a few criteria to determine if they would have a “minor” or, to put it frankly, “catastrophic” effect on life.
They also attempt to quantify how ‘likely’ they are to occur and, in order to guarantee that the UK is ready, lay out a’reasonable worst-case scenario’.
A pandemic sweeping across the nation once more is assessed as the most probable threat (between 5-25%) out of the 89 threats.
The Home Office adds that it’s “impossible” to predict when the next pandemic-causing pathogen, “Disease X,” would emerge. However, the WHO claims that they are already preparing for it.
According to the Home Office assessment, “the reasonable worst-case scenario is based on an unchecked respiratory pandemic with an unassumed transmission route and a high attack rate.”
‘The scenario implies 50% of the UK’s population fall ill for the whole course of the pandemic, with around 1.34 million individuals anticipated to require hospital treatment, perhaps leading to up to 840,000 deaths,’ it continues.
Such “catastrophic” events include a civil nuclear disaster and a radiation release from a nuclear power plant abroad, but the risk of either is less than 0.2%.
However, “larger-scale CBRN attacks,” or those employing chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear materials, have a probability of one to five percent.
The government warns that in the worst-case scenario, “terrorists, hostile states or criminals” might release “radioactive material into an open environment,” which would be challenging to clean.
It is also considered to be rather possible that the National Electricity Transmission System (NETS), which keeps the lights on in England and Wales, will fail.
Also included were more recent catastrophes and tragedies. Consider drone attacks (even though they have a low impact and possibility) and the 25% likelihood of killing a public figure, like the Tory MP Sir David Ames.
AI, meanwhile, “may increase harmful misinformation and disinformation, or, if handled improperly, reduce economic competitiveness,” according to others.
Officials also take into account hazards including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, hostage-taking, oil and gas interruptions due to the conflict in the Ukraine and Russia, storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts, and air pollution.
The government is also concerned about the possibility of one of the numerous volcanoes in Europe erupting, as well as Bárarbunga and Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland.
Concerns on officials’ minds from the interruption of British airspace caused by the ash to the possibility of British citizens getting stuck there.
Even in the three years since we released our most recent National Risk Register in 2020, we have witnessed Russia’s heinous invasion of Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic’s widespread and protracted consequences, and the growing influence of climate change on our day-to-day lives. Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, wrote.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, for example, are changing our society and posing both benefits and hazards.
The Duchy of Lancaster declared that in the face of the long list of hazards, Britain must be “resilient” and “work together” with other nations.
We can make the country safer, more secure, and ultimately more successful by emphasising our common resilience, he continued.