I know Christmas is coming soon, and you probably don’t want to think about politics right now. You might have to.
The ruling party has to. The Downing Street operation is in big trouble.
And even though it may have sounded a little crazy when we discussed it last week, it’s not unreasonable to think that the Conservatives are in such a bad situation that some of them are considering if they need a new leader.
Take a moment to think – most people don’t think it’s a good idea to randomly choose the sixth prime minister since the EU referendum by rolling a dice. But now, more people are starting to believe it for some very good reasons.
Rishi Sunak is really stressed. He has to go to the Covid investigation on Monday, and on Tuesday there is a vote on a plan he supported that didn’t work out well.
Issue one: The Conservative party can’t decide on how to fulfill the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘stop the boats’.
That saying is now commonly used in politics, but Rishi Sunak’s catchphrase has become a burden for his administration.
The plan was to stop people from coming to the UK by telling them they would be sent to Africa instead. The problem had some problems at first, but now Parliament has approved it.
However, it faced real-life and legal problems. Over the past few days, some people in Mr. Sunak’s own party have been against his new plans to make his long-time wish happen.
He didn’t go as far as some of his MPs wanted to make sure planes can fly without legal problems, but his new laws are still more than some of his colleagues are happy with.
Similar to Theresa May’s Brexit deals, it doesn’t make everyone on the right of his party happy, and it makes people on the more moderate side feel uncomfortable.
The outcome He’s stuck in the awkward middle of an issue that he decided to adopt as his own.
This weekend, all types of MPs in his party are thinking about whether to support the plan or not. Be careful about the headlines saying there will be a disaster, because many less important members of parliament are likely to let the proposals pass in the first debate, but then try to change them, break them apart, or even get rid of them after Christmas.
Issue number two: it’s not only the people you can predict who are upset. The prime minister’s friend and the minister in charge of handling the problem have left. Robert Jenrick will be in the studio with us on Sunday. He says the plan won’t work and he has big doubts about the government’s approach to managing migration from abroad.
Issue three: Number 10 has to deal with a mix of different groups who all have their own beliefs and ideas, causing tension.
It’s hard to make everyone happy and it’s unlikely that they will all agree with Number 10. One member of parliament making fun of the different groups describes them like this: “The ‘One Nation’ would be the smart kids in school. ” The person who always does everything right. The European Research Group (ERG) are like old-fashioned, traditional people, while the New Conservatives are like unruly kids in parks. The Truss lots are very scary.
Putting aside the playful jokes, how can a leader make sure that everyone follows the rules, even on topics that aren’t controversial. It’s important to remember that political parties are made up of different groups working together. It’s silly to think that they always agree and get along perfectly. One former minister in the Tory party said in 2023 that there is no unity among the members of parliament – they don’t like each other and don’t get along.
Issue four: The Conservative Party is not happy and in disarray, and now they are dealing with a new opponent.
The Tories were always arguing when Theresa May was in charge and also when Boris Johnson took over. The seats across from them were filled with unhappy groups that supported Jeremy Corbyn.
The work situation has changed, and the Conservative party is aware of it.
I heard some secret recordings of Greg Hands, who used to be a Conservative leader, talking to student activists in Oxford at the end of October.
He said that people who vote are not happy with all the problems in the government at Number 10. “We have upset them, especially because last year we had three different prime ministers. ”
He said that even though people may not be super excited about Keir Starmer, they don’t see Labour as a threat to their votes anymore.
In the recordings, he says that many Conservatives who like liberal ideas were scared to vote for anyone other than the Conservatives because they didn’t want Corbyn to become prime minister.
When he talks about keeping voters, he says that Starmer is not like Corbyn because he doesn’t scare people. Our challenge now is to keep those voters on our side. Mr Hands said that there are Conservative voters who still might come back to the party.
In reply to that recording, he says: “Like I said in Oxford, Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t won over the British people – and the Conservative Party can still be victorious in the next general election. ”
Similar to Neil Kinnock in the 1980s, Sir Keir Starmer is not as left-wing as the person before him, but still too left-wing for the British people. When people pay attention to him, they will see that he is not a good fit. He changes his opinion on all the important topics just to make his audience happy, like the monarchy, the EU, tuition fees, and taxes.
Rishi Sunak’s friends might say that the prime minister made things peaceful after a period of disorder.
However, considering what has happened recently, it’s obvious that was not strong enough to win. And maybe he’s starting to undo all the progress he made with his many resets. The splits now feel very painful.
Perhaps, that’s because some Conservative Members of Parliament have been behind in the polls for a long time. They might prefer to prioritize their own beliefs over the party’s success.
Maybe it’s because Rishi Sunak hasn’t been able to convince them that working together is important.
Perhaps it’s because the party has been in power for a very long time and has constantly changed itself that it is not certain about its purpose anymore.
It could be a combination of all of those things, and maybe even more.
Actually, Rishi Sunak is still in charge of a party that has a lot more members in the House of Commons than any other party. The next election is not for another year. People who vote are unstable these days, and the public feelings can change very quickly.
The prime minister’s special skill of ending the chaos from Truss and Johnson’s time has been greatly damaged. Breaking up and fighting are happening again. The people don’t like it when political parties are split.
Currently, this is one of the few things that Conservative MPs can agree on politically.