As the Tories fight to retain three key seats, Rishi Sunak acknowledges that this week’s by-elections would be among the most challenging he has faced while in office.
In west London’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where Labour is heavily favoured to win, all eyes are on Boris Johnson’s former district.
Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire are also expected to be won by Keir Starmer’s party, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset are expected to go to the Liberal Democrats, who are currently the overwhelming favourites.
The Prime Minister appeared to acknowledge voters will have frustrations today, telling ITV: ‘Midterm by-elections for incumbent governments are always difficult, I don’t expect these to be any different from that.’
He added: ‘But I passionately believe that my priorities are the country’s priorities.’
It could be a drama-filled end to a parliamentary term, with the Uxbridge poll triggered by Mr Johnson sensationally quitting over the Partygate report.
The economic outlook is difficult too, with households still struggling with stubbornly high inflation and mortgage holders thrust into misery by rising interest rates.
Combined with NHS pressures and the impact of months of industrial unrest, it will no doubt be a difficult start to summer recess for Mr Sunak.
Listing his five priorities, including cutting waiting lists and halving inflation, the PM said: ‘I know that everyone would like to see progress on those things quicker, as would I.
‘But I want to be honest with people about the challenges, that’s what I’m always going to do in this job. But also they should be reassured that I am working day and night to deliver on them.’
The UK, according to pollster and political analyst Lord Hayward, has now ‘returned to normal mid-term politics’.
‘What we’re looking at is a series of by-elections where people will naturally express their anger about the current government,’ he said.
‘Boris Johnson, in a curious way, managed to defy mid-term in some cases, although not necessarily in by-elections.’
The Tory peer added: ‘People will express their view about government but – and this is where it becomes different – all the seats… there is the burden of the events of the last 12 months.’
Labour candidate and local councillor Danny Beales will be hoping to become Uxbridge’s next MP.
But Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell is hoping the Sadiq Khan-backed Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) scheme is enough to sway voters away from Labour.