Russia has frequently targeted other export routes along the Danube River since declining to renew the agreement allowing Ukraine to ship grain over the Black Sea.
President Putin says he wants concessions from the West before lifting the Black Sea blockade, despite recent comments by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he is convinced that Russia will restart the accord.
We have examined the grain infrastructure that has been targeted and the implications of this most recent escalation for international trade.
What was struck?
As a result of Russia’s effective blockade of its Black Sea ports, Ukraine is highly reliant on its ports along the Danube to transport grain to neighbouring Romania.
From there, it can be transported further afield by being transported along the river to Romania’s Black Sea ports.
After frequently launching missiles and drones at Ukraine’s Black Sea export centres, Russia has now turned its attention to Danube ports like Reni and Izmail.
Recent satellite photographs of Reni port show that what appear to be grain silos at the facility have sustained substantial damage as a result of Russian attacks in the beginning of September.
This comes after prior attacks on silos, hangars, and other port buildings in July and August.
Drone assaults have also frequently hit the Zatoka bridge, a crucial link that permits grain shipments to enter Izmail by road, as well as the port of Izmail, farther to the east.
According to the local governor, the attack on Izmail on September 7 lasted three hours and targeted several buildings as well as grain loading and storage infrastructure.
Near least two storage tanks appear to have been struck, and considerable infrastructure damage can be seen near the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk in satellite photographs from July.
According to Ukrainian authorities, the location saw the destruction of 60,000 tonnes of agricultural produce.
There have been a few recent attacks on the city of Odesa, but these strikes don’t seem to have affected the trade of grain. Also, when we looked at satellite images, the port facilities of the city seemed to be undamaged.
In places where Ukraine sends exports through different routes instead of using its own Black Sea ports, there has been a lot of damage.
How has this affected the amount of goods and services being sent to other countries?
The River Danube is currently the primary pathway for Ukraine to export its grain. The grain is transported along the river to Romania and then sent to the Black Sea ports in that country, such as Constanta.
The government of Ukraine says that the recent attacks by Russia on the ports along the Danube River have caused over 270,000 tonnes of grain to be ruined.
According to Andrey Sizov, a specialist in the Black Sea agricultural markets, the cost of shipping goods from Izmail to the Constanta port in Romania increased by about 50% between early July and late August.
The recent attacks were very strong, which suggests that the rates might increase even more.
Only a few boats have used the path through the Black Sea after the grain project ended, but they didn’t carry grain.
Using a small river limits the amount of things we can send out, unlike when we use ships to send things.
“According to Mariia Bogonos, an agriculture policy expert at the Kyiv School of Economics, the end of the grain deal means that Ukraine will only be able to export a maximum of 2. 5 million tonnes of grain per month using boats, trucks, and trains. ”
In August, there were some attacks that closed the port of Reni on the Danube River. However, it seems that other ports on the river were able to start working normally again.
However, when these ports are being focused on, it leads to an increase in shipping and insurance expenses.
Romania has stated that it will try to improve other ways for Ukraine to transport its grain, using roads and trains.
Ukraine is now using Croatian ports to send out some of its grain, said Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. However, she didn’t explain exactly how much was going through this way.