Europe’s help for Ukraine was surprised this week when Poland, who had always been a strong supporter of Ukraine, said they would no longer send weapons to them.
The decision was made because Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, expressed dissatisfaction with Warsaw’s ongoing ban on Ukrainian grain imports. This is another example of Poland’s government becoming more confrontational towards Kyiv, especially as they approach a close general election.
The political drama has brought up some important questions, the most important of which is, will Europe’s strong resistance against Russia’s full-scale invasion weaken now.
How did a problem with buying grain turn into a big argument between countries. The European Union stopped getting grain from Ukraine for a little while in May, to make sure farmers in Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia could sell their grain for a good price. The EU stopped the ban last week, making the countries angry. They promised to keep the restrictions, which led to protests in Poland.
Poland is having a national election on October 15. The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is expected to do badly in this election. Anyone who pays attention to European politics knows that farming is very important. Farmers are people who play an important role in politics and have reasons to take action. Citizens also have concerns about having enough food, although sometimes they care too much or in ways that don’t make sense. The PiS party needs the support of people who live in rural areas to stay in control.
So, it’s understandable that the Polish government wants to do something attention-seeking and patriotic. But things got worse on Tuesday when Zelensky said at the UN general assembly that it is concerning to see some of our friends in Europe portraying solidarity as a political show and making a big deal out of something small.
The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said on social media the next day that Poland is no longer giving weapons to Ukraine because they are now supplying their own country.
Poland changed its stance and promised to still send the weapons it had promised before. Polish President Andrzej Duda said that the words of his prime minister were understood in the most negative way possible.
The argument brought up important questions about how Europe stays together.
But, most European officials, including those from Poland, don’t think there will be a big change in how they support Ukraine.
A senior European defense source said, “This is mainly about elections and farmers are a strong support group for PiS. ” Poland will keep giving weapons to Ukraine. For however long it is needed. “I’m completely sure about that,” says a representative from NATO. A European Union official said that Poles really want Ukraine to win the war because if they don’t, Russia (their biggest enemy) will be able to attack them directly. However, because of the upcoming elections, Poland wants to show their strength and power.
The anger towards Poland is very strong, even though some believe the noise about it is just for people in the country.
A person from the EU said to CNN that Ukraine has already given Poland a solution for their grain problem. That’s why they’re really angry at Poland. There are 24 countries who have been unfairly treated by Poland for the past 18 months because they did not provide enough support to Ukraine.
The same feeling was expressed by people from NATO, EU institutions, and European countries.
The person is saying that the contempt towards Poland can be understood by looking at the elections, the nationalist goals of the government, and their strong opinions on topics like grain, migration, and other things they consider as a danger to Poland.
They also criticize Brussels and the EU when it suits their plans. This is a desperate attempt to get people to vote – when you don’t have anything important to offer, you make up an enemy and blame them for problems at home to hide your failures in domestic policy.
The most important thing to consider from all of this is how it may affect Ukraine in the future. The Western countries are trying very hard to include Ukraine in their organizations. The country is working to become a member of both the EU and NATO, and everyone supports this decision.
However, there are already limitations and requirements that come with that support. Most countries in the EU agree that in order to include Ukraine, there must be significant changes in how the EU works.
If Ukraine were to become a member, the money that is currently given to countries for things like farming would instead be given to Ukraine. See if Polish farmers will buy it.
The current EU structures would also allow its newest member to have a lot of power in the institutions, such as the parliament and council of member states.
Some members of NATO don’t like the idea of a country that is currently at war being able to use the article 5 mechanism. This mechanism is when allies are obligated to help each other.
Many NATO countries don’t want to spend money on defense, even for themselves, let alone for each other.
Poland’s aggressive behavior enables countries who feel they have been unjustly pressured, especially by Poland, to stand up for Ukraine. These countries can now question the wisdom of the West providing extensive support to a country that is not even a part of their alliance.
European officials are really angry about what happened this week because it gives Russian President Vladimir Putin a chance to spread propaganda.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that there are some conflicts between Warsaw and Kyiv when asked about the argument. We think that these tensions will get worse.
People say that when Russia spreads false information, it benefits Russia but harms the West. Fights between Western countries make it seem like they are not united, and when they are not united, it benefits Russia.