Tuesday will see Poland perform its greatest military display in decades, flexing its defensive muscles as tensions build along its border with Belarus, a crucial ally of Russia.
The Polish Defence Ministry announced that 200 pieces of Polish and foreign military hardware, 92 aircraft, and 2,000 service members would be on display to commemorate Polish Army Day on Tuesday.
Some of the most modern weapons Poland has in its arsenal will be displayed during the parade, including US-made M1A1 Abrams tanks, South Korean K2 tanks and K9 self-propelled howitzers, HIMARS rocket launchers, Krab self-propelled howitzers, and US-made Patriot missile batteries systems, which are a component of the Polish “WIS-A” air defence system.
Following Russia’s decision to invade the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014, Poland has recently emerged as one of Europe’s top military forces after investing billions on new hardware. In the wake of the crucial role it has played in assisting Ukraine since Moscow’s all-out assault, Warsaw’s diplomatic influence has also increased.
As worries about the presence of Russian Wagner mercenary forces in Belarus grow, Poland last week announced the deployment of hundreds more soldiers to its eastern border.
Poland has borders with Russia’s semi-exclave of Kaliningrad in addition to Ukraine and Belarus. According to experts, Warsaw is sending a message to Russia and Belarus by organising a major display of might on Tuesday.
It has an almost Soviet feel about it. On May 8, Russia celebrates, along with Belarusians, North Korea, and Iran. It somewhat mimics the way they speak. According to Edward Arnold, a research fellow at the British security think tank RUSI, the opponent states view them [parades] as a show of power, so Poland will respond with a show of force.
In addition to demonstrating its capabilities to Russia and its allies, Arnold stated that Poland’s government is also attempting to reassure its own citizens that it is dedicated to security two months before significant elections.
A third consecutive term in office for the ruling right-wing Law and Justice party would be unprecedented in post-Communist Poland. However, it has so far been unable to decisively edge over the opposition Civic Platform coalition.
Since a war is raging on Poland’s border, security concerns rank high alongside the economy and living standards, according to Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor and the chair of the politics department at the University of Sussex in England, who spoke to CNN. “Demonstrating their competence on security is absolutely critical to the government’s reelection,” he added, noting that the problem crosses all political lines.
Nobody will argue that military security is unimportant or that we shouldn’t be bolstering the armed forces. Although they won’t suggest that strengthening the Polish military is unimportant, [the opposition] will claim that the government is staging this parade as a sort of election show.
According to Jamie Shea, a former NATO official who is currently a professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter in England and a fellow at Chatham House, Poland’s role within NATO has altered significantly over the past ten years.
Before Putin annexed Crimea and [started the invasion of] Ukraine, he said, “If you look at NATO ten years ago, its primary focus was mostly the Middle East, Afghanistan, and those kinds of missions, in which Poland participated, but to a small extent.” “But with NATO shifting back to focus on Central and Eastern Europe since 2014, Poland’s importance in the alliance has increased significantly,” the author writes.
Arnold claimed that there is a discernible power shift among NATO’s European members. “The leadership used to be the UK, Germany, France, and the US, and then together with the Quad, that group was the group that sort of decided things and that became NATO policy,” he said.
Poland has recognised its opportunity as the UK has left the European Union and Germany is still unwilling to take the lead on Ukraine.
“[They] are very vocal about defence and security issues, [have] excellent relationships with the Baltic states, and Russia has always been a serious threat,” So Warsaw seems like a solid option if you’re looking at this from a Washington perspective,” Arnold continued.
According to official NATO statistics, Poland has significantly boosted its defence spending in recent years, going from less than 2% of its GDP in 2014 to 4% this year. It surpasses the US to become the country with the largest share of GDP spent. Importantly, Poland invests more than 50% of its money in new technology and R&D.
They will become the EU’s and NATO’s European military powerhouse if all of these separate acquisition programmes are carried out as planned, according to Shea. According to one estimate, they will have more tanks than France, Germany, Italy, and the UK put together if they buy all of the US tanks, the Abrams tanks, the tanks they have bought from South Korea, and modernise what they already have.
Ukraine is now dependent on Poland, which leaves it open to attack. According to the United Nations, Poland is the country hosting 1.6 million Ukrainian refugees and receiving the majority of Western military supplies and other supplies into Ukraine.
Poland, according to Shea, is “the entire linchpin of the Western efforts to support Ukraine and keep it in the fight.” The majority of Ukrainian soldiers’ training is conducted in Poland, where the Poles have also established a number of maintenance facilities where the Leopard tanks may be rebuilt and returned. Additionally, many Ukrainian soldiers who sustain injuries receive treatment in Polish hospitals, he added.
The government is also prepared to put its constituents first. Shea cited Warsaw’s decision to impose a restriction on the import of grain and other food products from Ukraine after a boom in the availability of low-cost goods as evidence that “Law and Justice has shown that it is willing to upset Ukrainians big time where it feels that the alternative would be to alienate Polish farmers.” The ban is currently being extended by Warsaw.
Poland continues to struggle with the EU over issues like immigration and the rule of law, but Warsaw is making it clear to its partners that they need its military capabilities.
“The current government’s relationship with the EU is quite strained, especially when it comes to problems involving justice and home affairs as well as other concerns. However, Poland wants to downplay those opinions and sort of emphasise to the EU that [they] make a really large contribution to security and they don’t want to jeopardise it in any way, according to Arnold.
Recent developments in Belarus have demonstrated that Poland is actually at risk, not just speculating about it.
A Ukrainian missile defending against incoming Russian fire killed two persons in eastern Poland in November, around four miles (6.4 km) west of the Ukrainian border. Officials from Ukraine and Poland called the occurrence an accident and attributed the deaths of the victims to Russian aggression.
In February 2022, Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine using Belarus as a staging area. More recently, as part of an agreement to put a stop to the group’s armed uprising against the Kremlin, it was purportedly reported that thousands of Wagner mercenary warriors were transferred there last month.
The two troops conducted combined training exercises earlier this month close to the Polish border after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko requested the group to assist in educating his nation’s military. These exercises are when Warsaw claimed two Belarusian helicopters had violated Polish airspace.
Following the event, Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced that 10,000 soldiers would be dispatched to the border, of which 4,000 would assist the border guard immediately and the rest 6,000 would be in support roles.
The border has previously been militarised by Belarus. As revenge for Europe’s sanctions against his government in 2021, Lukashenko was charged of creating a problem there by transporting migrants from the Middle East to Minsk and then sending them to the EU border.