Azerbaijan’s military only needed one day to make a group of 120,000 Armenian people give up.
People are getting more and more worried about what will happen to the men, women, and children in this part of the South Caucasus.
Despite the promises made by Azerbaijan, Armenians living there are worried about what the future holds for them. They are afraid that they may be forced to leave their homes or experience even worse situations.
Siranush Sargsyan recently went to different shelters in the main city. She sent voice messages and said that there is absolutely no food available.
I don’t know anyone who wants to remain here. She said that she has elderly relatives who are very close to her. These relatives lost their sons in wars that happened before. They would rather die in this place.
“But for many people, especially people of my age, this is already the fourth war they have experienced. ”
They don’t have to leave, but they don’t really want to stay.
This week, lots of people ran away from villages outside the city because the Azerbaijani army moved closer. The city is called Stepanakert by ethnic Armenians, but Azerbaijan calls it Khankendi. “They have no knowledge about their family members. ” “It’s really scary,” she said.
Officials from Karabakh have informed the BBC that numerous families have been split up due to the presence of Azerbaijani army. These families are uncertain about the well-being and survival of their loved ones.
Many people have died in wars in this region since the Soviet Union ended. The first war happened in 1992-94 when Armenia took control of the area.
At least 200 more Armenians from a different culture died this week as the military moved deeper into an area that is seen by countries around the world as a part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has started the process of laying to rest its soldiers who have died in battle. It is believed that over 100 soldiers have lost their lives.
The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, says that Armenians living in Karabakh can finally feel relieved and relaxed. But it doesn’t seem like it will happen anytime soon.
There is not much trust in Karabakh for the government in Baku. This government has been controlled by one family for 30 years. The people in Karabakh don’t trust this government, especially because the president calls the region’s leaders “bloodsucking leeches”.
Right now, the pictures show Armenian people who are looking for their family members. They are staying in basements to protect themselves and using improvised stoves to cook whatever small amount of food they can find.
At the end of last year, Azerbaijan stopped all traffic from going into Armenia using the only available route.
Before this week’s attack, Sargsyan, who is a journalist, spent her time recording and documenting the lack of food, medicines, and toiletries that have been going on for several months.
That way out, called the Lachin Corridor, will become very important soon if many ethnic Armenians in Karabakh choose to leave.
For many years, there was a place that wanted to be separate from the rest, so it had its own TV stations, university, and language. But now, it will become part of the state that is around it.
Azerbaijan says that only 50,000 people are impacted, but Ms. Sargsyan believes that there are even more people affected in her city alone, stating the actual number to be 110,000.
Around 5,000 people have gone to a Russian peacekeepers’ base at the nearby airport to find safety.
Thomas de Waal, an expert on the Caucasus, is becoming more concerned about what might happen to the people there. He thinks there is a strong chance that a group of people might be forcefully removed or killed, either in a calm way or through violence.
“He said that women and children will not have any problems. ” But the main question is about men who are soldiers or who have fought against Azerbaijan – which is most likely most of the people in Karabakh.
Armenia’s leader, Nikol Pashinyan, has made arrangements to provide homes for 40,000 families. He said that his neighbor is trying to get rid of people from a specific ethnic group in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, he thinks that right now the regular people there are not in immediate danger.
Azerbaijan’s leaders are thinking about forgiving or pardoning certain individuals, particularly those who give up their weapons, by not punishing them legally.
Presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev told BBC’s Azerbaijani service that the new law will not apply to those who committed crimes in the First Karabakh war.
Azerbaijan has lists of men who are believed to have committed war crimes in 2020 and before.
A 68-year-old man was arrested in July when he was going to Armenia for surgery. He was suspected of committing war crimes in 1992. His family says that the things being said are not true.
On Friday, photos posted on social media showed people from Karabakh taking down pictures from an outdoor exhibit of those who passed away in the war of 2020.
Mr de Waal thinks that there are two important things that can stop ethnic Armenians from leaving in large numbers and it becoming very dangerous.
One possible scenario is that two international groups might be involved – the Red Cross and a group of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers, who were sent to Karabakh after the war in 2002.
Siranush Sargsyan doesn’t believe in the peacekeepers. She thinks the Russians won’t take any action. They will pretend to save children’s lives but won’t do anything to keep us safe.
Also, it should be noted that Azerbaijan is very concerned with how it is seen in the Western world.
Azerbaijan strongly says that they have no plans to make the local people leave. They have talked about helping ethnic Armenians become part of society again.
Zaur Ahmadov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Sweden, said that his country never wanted to remove people from different ethnic groups. He remembers when his fellow Azerbaijanis were forced to leave their homes in the 1990s.
As the Soviet Union fell apart, many Azerbaijanis were forced to leave Armenia, and there were killings on both sides.
The ambassador thinks it is very possible to include the people of Karabakh in the larger population. They believe that their rights to culture, education, and religion can all be protected.
He says there are already 30,000 Armenians living in his country who are married to people from different backgrounds, not in the area of Karabakh.
“He told the BBC that it will take some time for complete normalisation. ” “But a lot of trucks carrying food have already been delivered to Khankendi. They will also provide fuel and fix things like kindergartens in the next few days. ”
The text can be rewritten as: It is hopeful to see Azerbaijani forces near the regional capital, but the Karabakh army still needs to be disarmed.
Once it happens, the Azerbaijanis will go there.
Richard Giragosian, the leader of the Regional Studies Center think tank in Armenia, suggests that once this happens, the people in the area will rely completely on the guarantees made by Azerbaijan.
The main issue for Armenians in Karabakh right now is that they do not feel safe and protected. This feeling comes not only from Azerbaijan, but also from the Russian peacekeepers.
In the end, he thinks that the men living in Karabakh will be permitted to go away because many countries are paying a lot of attention to the situation.
But he also doubts that anyone will be convinced to become part of Azerbaijani society.
Siranush Sargsyan says that they act like they want to include us. “They want to remove us from here. ”