Most European lawmakers appear to believe that Russia was responsible for these explosions. Threats to react are frequent in the furious speech.
For one thing, proving, beyond doubt, that this was a Russian attack will prove challenging. The evidence is at the bottom of the sea, for a start. The waters are very turbulent and there is a huge amount of methane rushing from bottom to top. We won’t get definitive answers quickly, so expect lots of speculation, veiled threats, and strong words.
Russia has, obviously, denied any involvement in blowing up its own pipelines and joined calls for an investigation, saying that the explosions have cost it a fortune in lost gas reserves.
But this does look, on the face of it, like a classic example of how Team Putin likes to unsettle the wider world – through unpredictable acts to disrupt and cajole – the Salisbury poisonings in the UK, for example, or explosions in Bulgaria, Moldova, and the Czech Republic.
If energy infrastructure is now a target, then European navies will have to respond. Already Norway has said it “will raise preparedness” around oil and gas installations – a couple of months ago, the Royal Navy said it had trailed Russian submarines as they traveled south from the Arctic along the Norwegian coastline.
Norway could be an important factor in this story – a new pipeline, linking it to Poland, was opening at almost the same time as these explosions happened. The pipeline will help Poland wean itself away from Russian energy supplies – cutting further Russia’s gas revenue.
So (if Russia was behind this) it could be simply a symbolic gesture to warn the world that Moscow’s reach cannot be underestimated.
Or it could be something much more sinister – the first step in an assault against Europe’s undersea infrastructure – energy and communication links that do much to sustain the continent’s day-to-day life. Is that a genuine threat? Outside the Kremlin, nobody really knows.
Ultimately, it would be one thing for Russia to be accused of blowing up its own pipeline. But if it were now to menace infrastructure belonging to EU countries – that would be a lot more inflammatory.