Even though attention has been on the fallout from the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam since the beginning of the week, it is obvious that Ukrainian forces have increased activity along the frontline southeast of the city of Zaporizhzhia.
However, it is still too early to have a clear sense of what is happening and the degree to which Ukraine has put its foot down and is making a significant forward drive.
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted on Thursday by the Russian Ministry of Defence Telegram channel as claiming that Ukraine’s 47th Mechanised Brigade had made four attempts to cross Russian borders with up to 1,500 troops and 150 armoured vehicles.
The attacks had been repelled, Shoigu said, adding that Ukrainian forces had suffered significant losses of both soldiers and arms. The Defense Ministry in Moscow released a drone video purportedly showing a series of strikes on Ukrainian tanks during the same clash.
By contrast, on Friday morning, Semyon Pegov – among the most widely read of a group of Russian journalists and propagandists covering the war, often grouped together as Russia’s “military bloggers” – reported that Ukraine’s armed forces had made gains south of Orikhiv towards the town of Tokmak in Russian-held territory. The situation facing Russian forces was very serious, he said.
Attention has focused on this part of the frontline for months, so stepped-up Ukrainian activity there is no surprise. Breaking Russia’s land-bridge to Crimea, by rolling back Russian forces to the Sea of Azov, is clearly a central military objective for Ukraine. Tokmak lies on the road to Melitopol, one of three large cities under Russian control (the others are Berdiansk and Mariupol) that lie on or very close to the coast.
Ukrainian officials have said very little about how things are going. In his address Thursday evening, President Volodymyr Zelensky described “very tough battles.”
He added: “There is a result, and I am grateful to everyone who ensure the result!” though it is quite possible he was referring to fighting around Bakhmut, which lies along a very different part of the frontline, and where Ukrainian forces have made limited gains recently.
Another Russian military blogger writing on Telegram, Alexander Kots, has sought to frame Ukraine’s moves in the Zaporizhzhia region since the start of the week as a “Blitzkrieg” attempt that has failed.
Vladimir Rogov, a local Russian-installed leader, while also reporting Ukraine suffering “heavy losses” in “fierce fighting,” also urged caution. “The enemy has not yet engaged its main reserves in our direction. Everything is just beginning,” he wrote on Telegram.
CNN cannot independently verify claims made by Russian officials or those of well-sourced Russian military bloggers. But a local Ukrainian commander leading troops along the same front line rejected the suggestion Ukraine had begun its big attempt to recapture territory. Instead, the commander characterized the pushes as “reconnaissance in force” – operations designed to probe the enemy’s defenses for weak spots and to test its combat readiness.