For the time being, Boris Johnson has made the decision to leave politics on his own terms.
The former British prime minister has the opportunity to tell his own narrative after quitting as a member of parliament last week and refusing to accept the conclusions of a parliamentary committee that he intentionally misled legislators about violations of Covid rules. It’s another question completely if anyone will pay attention to or believe him.
The Privileges Committee proposed that Johnson not only be subject to a 90-day suspension, which would have required a by-election for his parliamentary seat, which he might have easily lost, but also that he not be granted a parliamentary pass, which former MPs are generally entitled to.
His statement responding to the committee’s report is a not just a rebuttal, but an attack on members of the committee.
“This report is a charade. I was wrong to believe in the Committee or its good faith. The terrible truth is that it is not I who has twisted the truth to suit my purposes. It is Harriet Harman (the committee’s chair) and her Committee,” Johnson said.
The truth is that people have largely made up their minds about Johnson and the conclusions of this inquiry will probably not change his political future in any meaningful way.
Johnson, since resigning in disgrace as PM last summer, has seen his overall approval ratings remain low. The public fell out of love with him as scandal after scandal dogged the latter part of his premiership.
Conservative MPs fell out of love with him at around the same time, as was underscored when Johnson tried to make a dramatic comeback last year after his successor, Liz Truss, was forced to resign after just a couple of months in office.
MPs blocked Johnson’s bid as he endured the humiliation of flying back from a holiday only to return to that holidays days later. It was clear that however much Johnson and his loyalists wanted him back, the people that could make it happen wanted him out of the picture.
It’s worth mentioning the Johnson loyalists, because they do exist. They are smaller in number than they used to be and they represent increasingly fringe views within the Conservative Party. But they do exist and they are as loyal as ever.
It is these people who will ensure Johnson remains a political threat to Sunak. He will always have an audience. There will always be people who are forever grateful for his role in delivering Brexit and securing a parliamentary majority for the Conservatives in 2019.
Johnson has always been an effective political figure, even when outside of parliament. It is very likely that he will return to his media career, perhaps with a column or a TV show. His supporters will read and hear his words. He will be able to set the political agenda as effectively as he could in parliament.
Johnson will have the ability to do all of this because of choices he has made. He has decided not to fight for his seat. He has decided not to accept the committee’s ruling. He has set himself as the outsider who was brought down by a cabal.
The fact that there will always be a group of people who will listen to him means that a return to the front line of politics can never be ruled out. Should Sunak lose the next general election, Johnson’s loyalists may wish to remind people of his 2019 electoral success. And over time, that audience he enjoys could grow and at some point, it might make sense for him to come back.
Make no mistake: this report is very damaging for Johnson and he is certainly down. But it would be unwise to assume that one of Britain’s most effective political streetfighters is ever out.