Former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been analysing the implications of Vladimir Putin’s latest escalation of his war on Ukraine.
In a Washington Post op-ed, he calls the president’s actions concerning but ultimately self-defeating.
He claims that the leader’s decision to illegally seize Ukrainian territory made reaching a peace agreement substantially more difficult.
In an op-ed in the Washington Post, he decries the president’s actions as worrying but also ultimately self-defeating.
He says the leader’s decision to illegally annex Ukrainian territory made a peace deal significantly harder
“With great difficulty, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might have been able to fudge some sort of formula tacitly accepting Russian control over Crimea and Donbas, but it will be impossible for him to agree to comparable concessions on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,” he writes.
Saying Mr Putin “has pushed himself into a corner”, he suggests “the only way to end this war might involve putting someone else in power in Moscow”.
“If the war continues to go badly, the voices quietly supporting suing for peace will grow,” he says.
“Tensions between the Russian military and intelligence services are already spilling into the open. These tensions will only grow if Russia’s soldiers continue to die and retreat in Ukraine.”
On the Russian leader’s threat’s around nuclear weapons, Mr McFaul says: “If Putin were to use a nuclear weapon (God forbid), that might also very likely deliver the final blow to his hold on power in Russia.
“No world leader would support him. The democratic world would be compelled to respond, both with more sophisticated weapons for Ukraine…
“After a nuclear attack, no Ukrainian leader would call for surrender. Instead, Zelensky would have every reason to bring the war to Russia, including attacks on targets in Moscow and other major cities. (Who doubts that Ukraine has sleeper cells in Moscow?) At the same time, it is hard to believe a majority of Russians would welcome the use of nuclear weapons against their Slavic neighbours.
“Putin would likely end up looking alone in his own country, a madman who must be stopped.
“The best way for Putin to hold on to power is to end his invasion today. He could declare victory regarding the defence of Donbas and then order his diplomats to settle into a long negotiation about the borders and political rights of those living in Donbas.
“Most Russians – elites and the masses – would support him. Fanatic imperialists do not have the means nor popular appeal to overthrow Putin. That is pure fantasy.
“But does Putin share these same assessments? I don’t know. And that’s what makes his recent moves of escalation so frightening.”