Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan after living abroad by his own choice. He has come back in time for the upcoming general elections.
Not many people would have predicted that someone who has been a constant annoyance to the powerful military throughout their career would experience such a remarkable change of fortune.
When he was recently in Pakistan, Mr. Sharif was in prison for doing something wrong. However, in November 2019, he was allowed to get out of jail because of health reasons.
Now it seems like the military is ready to welcome the person they removed from power in a sudden takeover – and there is a possibility that he might become the Prime Minister once more.
And there’s more – in a surprising change of positions, his opponent Imran Khan, who took his place as prime minister in 2018, is now in prison after having a disagreement with the military.
Even though it feels like we’ve experienced this before, we are not sure about what will happen next.
What will occur when Sharif arrives?
The ex-Prime Minister has been in London for the last four years. He was given permission to leave jail in an air ambulance, supposedly for medical care.
He has been increasing his involvement in politics since 2022, when Imran Khan was removed from power through a parliamentary vote.
MrSharif’s party, PML-N, became the governing party of Pakistan at that time, with his younger brother Shahbaz in control. Now, my older brother is returning home. He is supposed to come from Dubai to Islamabad on Saturday, and then go to our home city Lahore for a public gathering.
He has some unresolved court cases, but he will not worry about being taken to jail because he has been granted bail until the next court hearing, which will take place next week.
Mr Sharif has come back from exile before.
In 2007, he and another opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, made an important agreement with the military. This allowed them to participate in elections for the first time since he was removed from power in a coup in 1999.
All the main opposing parties agreed then, unlike now – Ms Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) won by a large margin, weeks after she was killed at a campaign event.
Will Sharif become the Prime Minister again?
His party has stated that he will be their candidate for Prime Minister in elections scheduled for this year but have been postponed until 2024.
However, the 73-year-old man has many problems to deal with – especially a struggling economy, which his political party is mostly held responsible for, and widespread beliefs that the election will not be conducted fairly because his main rival is imprisoned.
The military plays a significant role in governing Pakistan.
When he was overseas, the former Prime Minister spoke out against the military at times. He specifically accused a former leader of the ISI intelligence agency and the previous army chief of staff for causing political unrest, but they denied these claims.
MrSharif claimed that false cases had been filed against him and accused the judges in the country of working together. He said that this had caused a weak democracy in Pakistan where none of the prime ministers have been able to finish their time in office as dictated by the constitution.
People who are against him in politics think that he made an agreement with the military so that he can come back, but they are not completely sure if Nawaz Sharif will win the elections.
Zulfi Bukhari, a member of Imran Khan’s PTI party, said to the BBC: “I don’t think he will be Prime Minister again because there are legal cases against him and he has been banned from participating in politics for the rest of his life as per court orders. ”
But many people believe that things will turn out in Mr. Sharif’s favor
Our political system and the way we govern ourselves have remained the same. “According to political analyst Wajahat Masood, only the people involved in politics are being replaced. ”
In the 2018 elections, Imran Khan received support from powerful individuals or groups to help him win. Currently, the army is occupied with organizing elections for Nawaz Sharif.
The military hasn’t said if it likes Mr. Sharif or not, and both it and Imran Khan have always said they never worked together before disagreeing.
Are the elections going to be fair?
Imran Khan is in jail and his party is not as strong as before, after a crackdown due to violent protests. As a result, people believe that the election will not be conducted fairly.
Before the arrest of its leader, the PTI was doing well in the polls. However, Zulfi Bukhari believes that the situation is now unfair, and most other parties agree with him.
“How can we capture the country’s most famous political leader before elections. ” Bukhari inquired “If people are allowed to vote freely and fairly, it will become clear how many people support Imran Khan. ”
Nawaz Sharif’s political party made similar statements when he was sent to prison before the 2018 election.
Political analysts believe that history is repeating itself, but this time the PML-N is benefiting instead of the PTI.
The most important issue is the economy, and the two parties are blaming each other for the current problems in it. When people get to vote, they will be most concerned about very high inflation and the price of things becoming more expensive.
Although PML-N says that Nawaz Sharif has been in power before and knows how to “fix everything again,” it is not clear how he would accomplish this.
Many Pakistanis are very unhappy with their country’s democracy, which they believe to be very corrupt. Young people, especially nowadays, openly express their disapproval of politicians and the military’s role in politics.
Is Nawaz Sharif someone that the army can trust?
The army in Pakistan has often been involved in the country’s politics and has taken control of the government through several coups. They have had a long and complicated relationship with Nawaz Sharif.
However, Wajahat Masood and other observers think that even though there aren’t many other choices, the military is still willing to give him another chance.
Mr Masood said that at first, the military supported Imran Khan because they believed he was a good option and a safe choice. However, when they felt that their power and control were being questioned, they decided to remove him from his position.
“Now it seems that it is Nawaz Sharif’s chance. ”
He and other analysts have noticed signs that Mr. Sharif and the government are reaching an agreement, even though the former prime minister has criticized the military from London.
They remember that at the beginning of his career, Mr. Sharif was also thought to be influenced by the military and had to defend himself from similar criticisms as Imran Khan.
Since Sharif has had constant conflicts with the military throughout his career, how might he handle the situation at present.
Former MP Nadeem Afzal Chan says he won’t blindly agree with everything.
He recognizes that Mr. Sharif has a history of conflict with the authorities.
“But he understands the limits and knows when to break them and when to stop,” says Mr. Chan, who also acted as a spokesperson for Imran Khan during his time as prime minister.
But Chan and other experts believe that there will be a disagreement eventually – it’s just a matter of when it will happen.
First, there needs to be a chosen day for when the elections will be held. During the campaign, the most important goal will be to prevent the economy from completely failing.