Chinese health officials have reported that the current Covid-19 infection wave is “coming to an end” in their nation.
According to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the number of severe Covid cases and fatalities is on the decline.
It added that despite the fact that many people gathered with their families for the Lunar New Year holidays last week, there had been “no obvious rebound.”
Concerns have long been voiced regarding Covid reporting from China.
However, experts claim that the reported decline now fits with the anticipated timing of this major wave’s end.
The virus tore through Chinese cities and towns after authorities lifted zero-Covid restrictions in December. However, fever clinic visit rates have dropped over 90% through January, and hospitalization rates are down over 85%.
Fears that the virus could surge again during the festive period have also not yet been realised.
In its report, the CDC said: “There has not been an obvious rebound in COVID cases during the Lunar New Year holidays.”
“In this time, no new variant has been discovered, and the country’s current wave is coming to an end.”
It also reported a sharp decline in the daily Covid death toll reported by hospitals – from a peak of 4,300 deaths on 4 January to 896 deaths on 23 January.
Infectious diseases expert Hsu Li Yang told the BBC: “This drop in deaths follows the decline in the first huge wave of cases after China relaxed its restrictions, which is understandable and has been seen in virtually every country experiencing a large COVID wave.”
“We will know soon if the Lunar New Year celebrations will trigger another surge in China cases, but it is unlikely to match what was experienced in December and the earlier part of January 2023.”
One of China’s leading epidemiologists and former heads of the CDC, Zeng Guang, had earlier this month warned that cases would surge in rural areas during the new year.
The BBC has also found evidence of a considerable number of COVID-related deaths in China’s rural regions, as the virus spread from big cities to more remote areas with older populations.
However, the CDC said there had been no immediate spike following the holiday period.
It’s estimated that 226 million passenger trips were taken during the Lunar New Year festive season from 22-27 January – a 70% increase from last year when pandemic restrictions were still in place across many parts of China.
According to CDC data, Covid deaths halved in consecutive weeks in January. A total of 12,658 deaths were recorded between 13-19 January, while 6,364 deaths were recorded the following week.
In December, Beijing abruptly ended draconian Covid curbs that had seen millions of its citizens locked down over the past three years.
That led to a severe spike in Covid infections and deaths, with some experts estimating a majority of the population contracted Covid in the weeks following.
A Peking University study said that as of January 11, some 900 million people in China had been infected with the coronavirus, amid multiple reports of overcrowded hospitals and crematoria.
However, Chinese authorities initially maintained that there had only been seven deaths since the end of zero-COVID on December 7, after narrowing their definition of what counts as a COVID death.
The National Health Commission later reported almost 60,000 Covid-related deaths between 8 December and 12 January, after it began including deaths from underlying conditions as well as respiratory failure caused by Covid.
China’s official Covid data is believed to be vastly underreported, and authorities stopped releasing daily caseload reports last month.
Beijing has said it has been sharing COVID data in “a timely, open, and transparent manner in accordance with the law.”