Infections are predicted to increase by about two million per day globally, but only by a fraction of what was recorded last winter.
Global coronavirus cases are expected to gradually increase in the coming months, reaching approximately 18.7 million per day by February.
The current daily average is around 16.7 million, according to the University of Washington report.
It is far fewer than last winter when the Omicron variant pushed the estimated peak daily average to about 80 million – and the increase is also not expected to cause a big increase in deaths.
The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasts average deaths will rise from about 1,660 now to 2,748 on 1 February.
COVID infections in the US are predicted to rise by a third to more than a million per day over the same period, driven by factors such as people being inside more over the winter.
But a surge in Germany has already peaked, according to the study’s authors, who expect cases there to fall by more than a third to about 190,000.
The IHME suggests the recent rise in cases and hospitalisations in Germany could be down to Omicron subvariants BQ.1 or BQ.1.1, and that it might spread to other parts of Europe in the coming weeks.
Another Omicron subvariant called XBB is also driving a surge in admissions in Singapore, according to the analysis.
The University of Washington researchers say the variant is more transmissible but less severe.