Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin spoke yesterday in Minsk, sparking rumours that Putin may be trying to convince Belarus to join the conflict.
According to experts, Belarus will not directly enter the conflict because Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko “likely deflected” Mr. Putin’s efforts.
Belarus needs to defend its borders against the West and NATO, according to US-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War, which claimed Mr. Lukashenko was doing this to avoid taking part in the invasion.
In a joint news conference after the talks, both presidents refrained from discussing the invasion.
The ISW said that if Mr Lukashenko were planning on joining the war, he would likely “adjust his rhetoric to create some plausible explanation to his own people about why he was suddenly turning away from the fictitious NATO invasion threat”.
This is not to say the Kremlin hadn’t planned to pressure Belarus.
According to the think tank, Moscow has “attempted to conceal Putin’s likely original intentions to pressure Lukashenko”.
The ISW pointed out that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the speculation as “foolish” – and that he had avidly denied Russia’s intention to invade days before the war.
“But this denial is more likely an attempt to cover up Putin’s desperation to involve Lukashenko in the war and apparent failure – again – to do so,” the ISW said.