Russian assault waves were repulsed by Ukrainian irregular warfare strategies like “jagdkampf,” claim foreign researchers.
After Vladimir Putin launched the all-out invasion, the word, which roughly refers to small, extremely mobile units of fighters, was used to deadly effect by the defenders.
The extremely broken military command structure in the Kremlin stands in stark contrast to the ambushes and lightning attacks carried out by Ukrainian battalions with the ability to “shoot and scoot.”
The GlobSec think-tank has identified jagdkampf as one of the key reasons why Russia is ‘defeatable’ within a blueprint for repelling and ultimately vanquishing the invaders.
Dating back to the Second World War, the revived tactic is part of a defence effort involving the ‘entire Ukrainian society’, the global organisation says.
The role of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces has previously been covered by Metro.co.uk, with their ability to operate in hotspots such as the eastern city of Bakhmut as well as deep behind enemy lines.
But women in their 80s have also played a part in repelling a force with superior numbers and firepower, according to GlobSec.
Iuliia Osmolovska, director of the think-tank’s Kyiv office, said: ‘The phenomenon of jagdkampf has been covered in a report headed How to Beat Russia by a team of international experts led by our senior advisor Nico Lange, the former chief of staff at the Federal Ministry of Defence in Germany. Jagdkampf has been in the genes of Ukraine, Belarussia and Russia since the Second World War.
‘The phenomenon was particularly evident in the early phase of the full-scale attack by Russia when highly mobile units of Ukrainian partisans were able to launch surprise attacks on Russian convoys and do a lot of harm to the invading troops.
‘Belarussian and Russian partisans not aligned with their governments are carrying out their own operations in the countries out of protest against the war Russia is waging in Ukraine.’
Ms Osmolovska spoke this week as Ukrainian forces engaged in at least three offensives reported by the country’s military and government officials to have liberated multiple settlements from Russian occupation.
While the armed forces have been the tip of the spear, GlobSec has observed how the wider population has been engaged in ‘total defence’.
High-profile examples of the approach in the first days of the war include the battle of Hostomel Airport, when units considered to be Moscow’s elite airborne troops were destroyed and repelled by the defenders.
A stalled, 40-mile long Russian military convoy also encountered stiff resistance before the invaders retreated from the approaches to Kyiv, which Putin had intended to rapidly seize.
Small units of Ukrainian troops, including civilian volunteers defending their neighbourhoods in settlements to the north of the capital, played a critical role in both engagements.
Before the war began, US General Mark Milley reportedly warned a closed session of Congress that the Russians could seize Kyiv within 72 hours.
Instead, heaps of charred Russian vehicles on roadsides were testimony to the abject failure of Moscow’s troops.
The GlobSec report reads: ‘The Russian invasion of Ukraine failed because of Ukraine’s total defense efforts within the first decisive 72 hours of battle.
‘The major Ukrainian cities directly on the borders withstood attack after attack. Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv, importantly, prevented the rapid advance of Russian forces on Kyiv, stopped the attacks, and thwarted Moscow’s attempts to turn them into logistical hubs to bolster further military advances. The populations of these cities quickly flipped a switch from leading their normal lives to putting up a stiff resistance.’
While the UK’s armed forces have been training Ukrainian troops, it is now NATO that needs to learn from the defenders, the report concludes.
‘Jagdkampf is only one of many layers outside of regular military conventions that have been contributing to Ukraine’s ability to beat Russia,’ Ms Osmolovska said.
‘As detailed in my colleagues’ report, it is aligned with the total defence of Ukraine and data fusion, both of which involve civil society.
‘A couple of weeks after the war began, the Ukrainian law enforcement and security services launched a special Telegram channel where they encouraged citizens to report the movements of Russian troop and vehicle movements. There were Ukrainian ladies aged in their 80s who filmed Russian technical vehicles and trucks passing by and sent the footage to the Ukrainian authorities.’
Civilian information, including cell phone footage and commercial drone imagery, is rapidly fed through apps into Ukraine’s military intelligence channels. The data-driven combat approach, also utilizing artificial intelligence, is said by the authors to have developed in a matter of weeks and months where it would have taken 10 years in most NATO countries.
‘This phenomenon of data fusion has contributed a great deal to the ability of Ukrainians to defend our country outside the official ranks of the armed forces,’ Ms Osmolovska said.
‘Another example is Russians who were demanding food from locals in occupied areas being given items laced with poisonous materials, which made them ill. This has all contributed to a degradation of Russian morale and ability to fight on Ukrainian land, where they thought they would be welcomed with open arms.’
The offensives are underway in the east and south-east of the country, with the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) identifying three ‘likely’ advances towards Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Orikhiv.
The US Institute for the Study of War assessed that the operations are probably setting conditions for a wider Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Ms Osmolovska said earlier this week that the prospects of Ukraine driving Russian forces out of land it has occupied after the full-scale invasion and, in a less likely scenario, reclaiming Crimea and the entirety of the Donbas, have increased due to the operations.
However, she framed the chances of Ukraine inflicting a decisive victory on the invaders as being heavily dependent on the supply of Western arms, with the most critical at present being modern fighter jets such as F-16s and long-range missile systems.
‘In our analysis, we show that Ukraine’s armed forces intelligence services are quite confident that we can win this war even this year if Ukraine receives what it requests from the West,’ Ms Osmolovska said.
‘Right now, the crucial weapons Ukraine needs are modern fighter jets and long-range missiles. It is in both Ukraine’s and our Western partners’ interest that this happens this year.’
In the long term, it may be NATO that learns how to better defend its territory and borders as a result of the Ukrainian example.
The authors conclude: ‘Russia is still continuing to wage its war of aggression against Ukraine. And yet, Russian forces are already defeated.
‘Against the resistance of Ukrainians who are supported by partners, Russia has achieved nearly none of its military goals. Ukraine will prevail.
‘The armed forces in NATO countries, the EU, and beyond should learn important lessons from the course of the war.’
Fedir Serdiuk, co-founder of Ukrainian charity the Pre-Hospital Ukrainian Life-Saving Effort (PULSE), has been part of the ‘total defence’ by providing tactical medical training for frontline personnel.
Last December, he travelled from his current base in Odessa to a NATO medical conference in Estonia, where he found that Western allies are keen to learn from his nation’s battlefield experience.
Serdiuk, who is scaling up the provision of training to Ukrainian personnel, told Metro.co.uk: ‘I went to the conference with a surgeon who was treating more patients on some days in Ukraine than individual US field hospitals were treating in a month when the West was in Iraq and Afghanistan.
‘After the conference I was invited by the European Command of the US Army to visit their location in Germany to talk and discuss about how we are saving lives on the ground in Ukraine. They were listening very carefully.
‘So it’s not just the case that NATO countries can learn from Ukraine in the future, it is already happening.’
The MoD has given a mixed picture of Russia’s battlefield response to the offensives, which some Western analysts have speculated may be a series of probing or ‘fighting reconnaissance’ attacks before a larger assault.
Some units were said to be ‘likely conducting credible manoeuvre defence’ while others pulled back in ‘disorder’ and even suffered casualties as they retreated through their own minefields.