Military analysts claim that Putin‘s generals are ‘panicking’ as seen by the Kremlin’s prompt denial of a Ukrainian ‘breakthrough’ in Bakhmut.
On Thursday, a number of military blogs that support Russia claimed significant Ukrainian gains in several engagements along the eastern metropolis, which has been Putin’s top goal since the winter.
The leader of the Wagner mercenary group, which comprises the majority of the Russian forces there, Yevgeny Prigozhin, meanwhile, accused regular Russian soldiers of evacuating their posts.
In an audio recording, he said: ‘The situation on the flanks is developing according to the worst predicted scenario.
‘All the territories that were taken with the blood and lives of our comrades over many months, advancing tens or hundreds of metres a day, are now being thrown away practically without a fight by those who should be holding our flanks.’
The Russian defence ministry attempted to downplay the claims as social media chatter, avoiding any direct acknowledgement of Prigozhin’s comments.
In a statement, it said: ‘Statements circulated by individual Telegram channels about ‘defence breakthroughs’ that took place in different areas along the line of military contact do not correspond to reality.
‘The overall situation in the area of the special military operation is under control.’
The claims appear to be absent from Russian media, except for a report by the state-run Tass news agency which appeared only on its English-language version.
It claimed the situation was ‘generally under control’ but also made no mention of Prizoghin’s accusations.
Independent researchers cross-referencing battlefield footage with posts by Russian military bloggers said it was ‘likely’ that Ukrainian forces broke through some Russian lines between Wednesday and Thursday night.
According to the latest analysis by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian troops were probably forced back in some areas by around two kilometres.
It has previously taken both sides between weeks and months to cover such distances in Bakhmut, which has been dominated by bloody attritional warfare.
The fact that Russia acknowledged ‘the Ukrainian counterattacks [by denying them] uncharacteristically quickly’ suggests ‘increased panic’ among the Russian leadership, the ISW added.
The organisation claimed to have geolocated all the footage used in its analysis, suggesting the images contained file data or known landmarks proving where they were filmed.
Ukrainian forces had been gradually pushed back in Bakhmut but inflicted far greater losses on the enemy than they suffered, according to Western intelligence updates.
Intense fighting rages on in other nearby cities, including Avdiivka and Mariinka, which could decide whether the self-proclaimed pro-Russian ‘Donetsk Republic’ falls back into Ukrainian hands.