The invasion of Ukraine has been an aggressive play by an expansionist neighbour and led to global condemnation of the Russians. But it has also got some asking – could Taiwan be next?
Could we see another victim of an ambitious power trying to increase its global clout?
The self-governing island, formed by nationalists who managed to escape the grip of Communist China, has long been the target of Beijing. The Chinese government has always viewed it as a breakaway province it must ultimately re-unify.
Until now, the manpower, money, and influence that it would require has kept China at bay. But some fear President Xi, eyeing an unprecedented third term, now has the ability and the ambition to do something drastic in a bid to carve out his legacy.
After speaking to a wide cast of characters in Taiwan, that still seems an unlikely scenario in the immediate future – even amongst the most anxious and invested parties we heard from.
It would be hugely risky – an enormous logistical undertaking that could easily destabilise China’s relationship with others in the region.
And if China was watching as closely as some suspect, surely Ukraine is a deeply cautionary tale. Nevertheless, Russia’s exploits have highlighted how fragile peace is when you’re dealing with an unpredictable power.
America has also played a big part in the escalating tension. Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August was diplomatically explosive.
China was so infuriated by the US House Speaker touching down in what it views as Chinese territory, that Beijing embarked on its biggest-ever military drills around Taiwan.
Many on the island now claim that almost daily incursions into its skies and waters are the new normal.
In Central Taiwan, we witnessed a military drill – up to 400 soldiers working in searing heat, firing Howitzers. Taiwan insists these exercises are not a reaction to any recent moves by China, but it is also a little more real.
President Tsai, who we followed on the campaign trail, certainly isn’t capitulating – far from it.
At rehearsals for National Day, where Taiwan flexed its military muscle, the theme was a strong nod to national security. “Protect soil, guard country,” the banners read.
We met civilians preparing for the worst, building survival kits at home. There’s been a huge spike in people attending self-defence and first aid courses recently. We heard from others trying to improve shelters.
Then there are the cyber warriors taking on fake news. Drones are the latest threat. Taiwan thinks they represent psychological warfare, a “grey zone” tactic it must confront.
But unpicking propaganda, verifying footage and working out where drones came from, who’s flying them and where they’re landing, is very difficult.
And it’s easy to misread the dynamics.
Kinmen Island, where China is easily visible, has been described as akin to Korea’s DMZ. But it doesn’t feel like a place with a bunker mentality. In fact we also met lots of people who really enjoy living so close to the mainland. Until the pandemic, they’d love to take a 30-minute ferry over to shop there.
Chinese tourists in turn would come to Kinmen to watch historic re-enactments of darker days, when Kinmen was under bombardment by the Chinese.
Now, it’s more a conflict curiosity shop than an anxious outpost. Many share a language and cultural affinity with mainlanders.
On a cliff edge on one of Kinmen’s islands sits a 3 storey high wall of speakers. It looks out over a narrow strip of water to China, just two kilometres away at its narrowest point.
Housed in concrete, the tower used to blast songs and propaganda messages across the sea. Today, it still plays a song by Tawainese pop idol, Teresa Teng, but the volume is much lower these days.
It’s become a tourist attraction on the island, a place for snapping selfies and remembering a darker time when the island was under attack from China.
Kinmen is Taiwan’s literal frontline.
Roy Chen has come with his wife, Vicky, and a group of friends to celebrate his 40th birthday. He was in the army for 18 months and is prepared to fight again for his country, if China invaded Taiwan.
“We don’t really care about the history between China and Taiwan. It happened a very long time ago”, he says. “Taiwan is Taiwan, China is China. It’s different countries.”
“If China really wants to get Taiwan, it’s easy. But he cannot get our people, our hearts, our spirit”.
Roy’s friend, Nina Wu, agrees. “We fight for our freedom and we love our people and the country.” she says. “We don’t want to become a part of China.”
In a humid warehouse south of Taipei, four men in military fatigues and body armour are poised to attack.
Peering through the sights of their airsoft rifles, they exchange hand signals and quick glances before kicking a door open and firing.
These men aren’t soldiers. They’re just practising military skills with replica guns. Skills that Ping-yu Lin, 38, hopes he will never need.
He thinks everybody needs to be prepared for an attack from China “in their own way”, and that an attack could happen in “three to five years”.
“After the Ukraine war, we start to think it’s rising, the threat is rising. And some of us are starting to prepare ourselves. Compared with China we are small. And we need more friends, more allies.”
Ping-yu is a father of three and worries about Taiwan’s future. He believes there’s a lot at stake if China were to invade.
“Taiwan will lose everything in our democracy and our society, our property, our lives… in the current climate we can’t take peace for granted.”
In the glaring heat of an autumn day, it’s a welcome relief to step inside the gloom of the Zhaishan tunnels.
We walk along the edge of the subterranean channels, looking down into the clear green waters.
The cold war era caves were built by hand to shelter ships from Chinese view.
For 56-year-old Hsi-Tein Lee, they were home for more than a year.
He joined Taiwan’s army when he was 18, in the 1980’s.
“The tension between Taiwan and China was at a high level.” he tells us. “As a kid under 20, I was very nervous and scared. I was worried that the war would break out at any time, and I had to sacrifice my life to the country. I was terrified.”
Hsi-Tein doesn’t miss those days, and has no desire to return to them.
“Everybody thinks that Taiwan and China should keep the peace” he says. “It’s good that people enjoy freedom. It’s not wise to promote Taiwanese independence or to provoke China’s armed forces.”
The start of the war in Ukraine had a massive impact on many Taiwanese. The reality of a neighbour invading has prompted many to consider a future conflict on their shores.
Enoch Wu wants to prepare civilians for any disaster, whether that’s an earthquake – or war. Frontline Alliance runs emergency response training and since the start of the war in Ukraine, their classes are packed.
“One of the biggest lessons from Ukraine is that our world can be turned upside down just like that” he tells us.
“You know, people don’t appreciate how incredibly fragile peace is, and especially when you live next to a volatile ruler, a dictatorship who can act on a whim to attack and invade another country, an autocratic government that is not accountable to its people or to the international community.”
The 41-year-old believes that Taiwan has been living under an “existential threat” from China for decades. He says his parents fought for democracy in Taiwan, and now their children have to protect it.
“We are unfortunately facing our biggest generational challenge of national survival”, he says. “It’s up to us now to maintain and protect this way of life.”
Enoch Wu is concerned about the Chinese military build up and is calling for a NATO-style collective security agreement.
“China took over the South China Sea, rock by rock, and now it’s militarised.. They’ve never hid their intentions. And I think we need to not be naive.”
In Taipei, you get the sense it is now forged its own identity and the horse feels like it’s well and truly bolted. In the past, some saw the economic appeal of China.
Now you get a sense of a gaping gulf between the two societies. Gay marriage is legal in Taiwan and many young people we spoke to, including those about to embark on military service, believe there’s no going back. They’re proud of Taiwan – they see it as a progressive nation with an increasingly distinct character.
They weren’t preoccupied with worries about war. But it’s everything in between that concerns others – the multitude of ways China could and likely will try to exert its influence.
And there is plenty it could do to derail the path Taiwan has set for itself – without a full-scale invasion.
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Source: SkyNews, Cordelia Lynch and Rachel Thompson