Holding the draw for the Rugby World Cup in 2020 has meant that the tournament has a bizarrely skewed look where three of the sport’s top five teams are in the same pool, while one of the next five is virtually guaranteed a semi-final spot.
The early draw, made on the back of dubious “administration” requirements when the rankings looked very different, means that two of the top-four teams—Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa and France—will not make it into the semi-finals.
It does, however, also mean that the pool stage will have meaningful match-ups and the quarterfinals already look hard to call.
In a sport where only five countries have reached a World Cup final since the tournament began 36 years ago, to have three of the world’s top five facing off in the preliminaries is nothing short of bizarre and has led to a change of plan for the 2027 edition in Australia.
For now, though, world number one Ireland, defending champions South Africa and Scotland, enjoying their best form for decades, will battle it out for two places.
The reward for the top two will almost certainly be a quarterfinal against France or New Zealand, who should get the World Cup off to a cracking start when they meet on September 8.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the draw, a group of teams going into the tournament in various levels of disarray, can plot a realistic path to Paris and the semi-finals.
One of England, Argentina, Australia or Wales is highly likely to get to the semis, where in a one-off against one of the high-fliers, anything can happen.
Ireland go into the tournament on the back of a fabulous run where they have not only claimed big wins against the best in the world, but have backed it up with repeats.
DIFFICULT CHALLENGE
However, the elephant in the room is the fact that they are the only one of the “big nine” never to have won a knockout game and that, despite their peerless form, they face a monstrously difficult challenge to end that curse.
Even getting out of their group is likely to require victory over a resurgent Scotland. If they manage that, whether they have already beaten or lost to South Africa, they will probably land a quarterfinal against the host nation or New Zealand.
Three wins in their last four meetings with the All Blacks have removed any inferiority complex for Andy Farrell’s team but the three-time champions remain a team nobody wants to meet in a quarter-final, as Ireland know all too well from the 46-14 thrashing they suffered at that stage four years ago.
Should Ireland finally get through to the semis, the history of the tournament shows it is almost impossible for a team to come through four “showdown games” and still be in shape to win a fifth in the final.
South Africa has added more variety to the power-packed forward game that rolled them to victory in Japan four years ago but their frightening forward strength and depth were there for all to see in their remarkable 35-7 demolition of New Zealand at Twickenham last week.
They and Ireland should get through, though a Scottish backline led by the mercurial Finn Russell undoubtedly has the talent to beat either of them, though probably not both.
France are nominal favourites on the back of their talented and settled side and a long run of great form but the weight of the draw undermines that position.
HIGH-PERFORMING
Losing flyhalf Romain Ntamack is a blow but with Antoine Dupont as the main string-puller at scrumhalf and settled and high-performing combinations throughout the team, they still look to have more than enough to win the tournament after losing in three finals.
England, runners-up four years ago, could not be in a more different position, with question marks over half a dozen positions, let alone how they are going to play.
New coach Steve Borthwick has been unable to build the forward-powered machine he promised after taking over from Eddie Jones and their warm-up campaign, in which they barely fired an attacking shot, showed absolutely no progress from another dire Six Nations.
They have lost six of their last nine games and head to the tournament following a first-ever defeat by Fiji.
England start with a tough game against Argentina but even if they lose that, it is hard to see them faltering against a Japan team that are nowhere near their 2019 levels. That would earn a probable Marseille quarterfinal against Wales or, deliciously for Jones, Australia.
The Wallabies have been similarly poor and Jones has made left-field selections but they have a knack for turning it on at the World Cup and, like everyone else in that half of the draw, they will have real hopes of making the last four, where anything can happen.
Despite World Rugby’s best intentions, the chances of an outsider making the quarterfinals remain slim.
A much-improved Fiji, grouped with Wales and Australia, probably looks best-equipped to fly the flag for “Tier Two,” and recent results for all three will give the islanders real hope.
Buoyed by their Twickenham triumph, they will also summon memories of their famous win over the Welsh the last time France hosted the tournament in 2007, and the last time Fiji reached the quarterfinals.
However, Fiji is now ranked seventh, above England, Australia and Wales, so who is to say what constitutes a shock?
