The World Bank’s Migration and Development Brief, released today, highlights concerns about the potential decline in real income for migrants in 2024 amid global inflation and low growth prospects.
Remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experienced an estimated growth of 3.8% in 2023, a moderation from the high gains of the previous two years.
In 2023, remittance flows to LMICs reached an estimated US$669 billion, supported by resilient labor markets in advanced economies and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, enabling migrants to send money home.
Remittance inflows grew for Latin America and the Caribbean (8%), South Asia (7.2%), East Asia and the Pacific (3%), and sub-Saharan Africa (1.9%). However, flows to the Middle East and North Africa fell for the second year, declining by 5.3%, mainly due to a sharp drop in flows to Egypt. Remittances to Europe and Central Asia also decreased by 1.4% after a gain of more than 18% in 2022.
The United States remained the largest source of remittances, with the top five recipient countries being India ($125 billion), Mexico ($67 billion), China ($50 billion), the Philippines ($40 billion), and Egypt ($24 billion).
Economies where remittance inflows represent substantial shares of GDP include Tajikistan (48%), Tonga (41%), Samoa (32%), Lebanon (28%), and Nicaragua (27%), emphasizing the importance of remittances for funding current account and fiscal shortfalls.
The trajectory of weaker global economic activity is expected to result in a further softening of remittance growth to LMICs, projected at 3.1% in 2024. Factors contributing to this moderated forecast include slowing economic growth and the prospect of weaker job markets in several high-income countries. Additional downside risks include volatile oil prices, currency exchange rates, and a deeper-than-expected economic downturn in high-income countries.
“During crises, migrants have weathered risks and shown resilience to support families back home. But high inflation and subdued global growth is affecting how much money they can send,” said Iffath Sharif, global director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. “Labor markets and social protection policies in host countries should be inclusive of migrants, whose remittances serve as a vital lifeline for developing countries.”
As per the Remittances Prices Worldwide Database from the World Bank, remittance costs remain consistently high, averaging 6.2% to send US$200 in the second quarter of 2023. In comparison to the previous year, sending money to all regions has become more expensive, with the Middle East and North Africa being the only exception.
Banks continue to be the most expensive channel for sending remittances, with an average cost of 12.1%, followed by post offices (7%), money transfer operators (5.3%), and mobile operators (4.1%).
“Remittances are one of the few sources of private external finance that are expected to continue to grow in the coming decade. They must be leveraged for private capital mobilization to support development finance, especially via diaspora bonds,” said Dilip Ratha, lead economist and lead author of the report.
“Remittance flows to developing countries have surpassed the sum of foreign direct investment and official development assistance in recent years, and the gap is increasing.”
A dedicated segment of the report explores the potential of mobilizing diaspora finances for development and fortifying a country’s debt position. Diaspora bonds offer a structured approach to directly access diaspora savings held in foreign destinations. Many nations have provisions for nonresident deposits aimed at attracting diaspora savings.
However, in contrast to diaspora bonds, these savings often exhibit short-term and volatile characteristics. Leveraging future remittance inflows as collateral presents an opportunity to reduce the costs of international borrowing for developing countries.
Given their substantial size compared to other foreign exchange sources, counter-cyclical nature, and indirect contribution to public finances, remittances can play a crucial role in enhancing a country’s sovereign ratings and its capacity to meet debt obligations.
Regional remittance trends
Remittances to East Asia and the Pacific rose by approximately 3% to reach $133 billion in 2023. Excluding China, the region witnessed a 7% growth in remittances, amounting to $83 billion, supported by sustained flows to the Philippines. The average cost of sending $200 to the region was 5.9% in the second quarter of 2023, with a projected remittance growth of 2.4% in 2024.
Meanwhile, remittance flows to Europe and Central Asia faced an estimated 1.4% decline, amounting to $78 billion in 2023. This subdued growth is attributed to the high baseline in 2022, driven by substantial transfers from Russia, coupled with weakened flows to Russia and Ukraine. The average cost of sending $200 to the region was 6.9% in Q2 2023, with a projected 1.2% decline in 2024.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, remittance flows are anticipated to surge by 8% to $156 billion in 2023. The robust U.S. labor market positively impacted remittance flows, with a projected 9.7% increase to Mexico. The average cost of sending $200 to the region was 6.1% in Q2 2023, and growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2024.
The Middle East and North Africa are forecasted to experience a 5.3% decline in remittance flows to $61 billion in 2023, primarily due to a significant drop in flows to Egypt. Remittance flows to South Asia grew by 7.2% to $189 billion in 2023, led by robust flows to India, projected to reach $125 billion. The average cost of sending $200 to the region was 4.3% in Q2 2023, with a forecasted growth slowdown to 5% in 2024.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to witness a 1.9% increase in remittance flows to $54 billion in 2023. Key contributors include strong growth in Mozambique (48.5%), Rwanda (16.8%), and Ethiopia (16%). Remittance flows to the region are projected to increase by 2.5% in 2024, with an average cost of sending $200 at 7.9% in Q2 2023.