Chinese representatives attending a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, last weekend gave European diplomats some little solace. The goal of the gathering was to settle the Ukrainian issue peacefully.
Although Beijing maintained its posture of neutrality, some sources contend that Beijing’s mere attendance at a meeting to which Russia claims it was not invited sent a signal to the world that it was unwilling to publicly align with Russia against the West.
Putin, the president of Russia, may not have gotten everything he wanted, but even a little success in the zero-sum game of diplomacy is cause for celebration.
A senior EU source told CNN, “We never anticipated China to go totally to the Western stance, but sponsoring this conference will be a significant disappointment to Russia.
“In our opinion, China is actively interacting with the West, speaking with the Ukrainians, and rebuffing Russia. The official said, “We truly appreciate that. This opinion is shared by other European sources.
Even if China’s involvement in world affairs may be a setback for Russia, Western allies continue to be wary of China, in part because the two nations continue to have close economic, diplomatic, and security relations.
Beijing hasn’t given the impression that it is cutting back on relations with Russia, despite the delegation’s attendance in Jeddah. A day after the Jeddah negotiations ended, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and reiterated Beijing’s “impartiality” in the crisis.
Throughout the conflict, the military of the two nations have continued to train together. Last week, a naval patrol was conducted off the coast of Alaska. According to Russian media, Putin will also travel to China in October after accepting Xi Jinping’s invitation in March.
The same senior EU source recognised that Beijing has few reasons to want to end the war outside of its relationships with trading partners. “From their viewpoint, the US, its main opponent, is preoccupied, and Russia has grown even more into a subordinate partner. The only drawback is how it influences others’ perceptions of China.
It’s no secret that China and Europe have a strained relationship. That, according to officials, is problematic for Chinese leaders who see European countries as targets in Beijing and Washington’s struggle for global supremacy.
It’s also no secret that China’s tight ties to Russia, along with Beijing’s unwillingness to denounce Moscow’s full-scale invasion, have unnerved a number of European nations, particularly those that are geographically close to Russia, and caused them to reevaluate how Europe should interact with China.
According to a European security source, “China’s main goal is to maintain ambiguity in the European position so they don’t go as far as the US would like.” “Retaining economic ties makes it more difficult for hawks to distance Europe from China. Jeddah may have been a response to Russia’s efforts to bring Europe closer to the US. China will feel compelled to get involved in Ukraine again.
Policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Alicja Bachulska concurs:
“China’s recent actions unquestionably involve PR damage management. China is waiting to act, and it will do so as long as it can. Attending this kind of meeting fits in very well with this plan, especially if Russia is not present. For everyone who still has the foolish belief that China can make a difference, it makes for fantastic headlines.
In short, the EU’s most challenging but crucial international relationship hasn’t changed in Brussels as a result of China coming to the table.
According to several officials who spoke with CNN, the relationship with China is currently in a state of stasis as it tries to strike a balance between what Europe needs and what Europe wants.
Despite its dependence on China, Europe still imports far more from that country than it does. The trade imbalance increased significantly from 2020 to 2022, reaching €396 billion ($436 billion).
This has occurred despite Europe’s reluctance to ratify official treaties and agreements. Because China has penalised members of the European Parliament for criticising China’s human rights record, the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which was negotiated for nearly ten years before a basic agreement was reached, is on hold.
The official position of Europe towards China has likewise altered, and as of 2019, it officially recognises Beijing as a “systemic rival.” In an effort to counter China’s hegemony in Eurasia, Brussels has launched distinct strategic actions since 2019.
According to a CNN interview with an EU official, Brussels has not yet “solidified” its stance on China. “A Jeddah-style declaration is nice, but it won’t change the rules of the game. Since the beginning of the war, we have wished for China to act in this manner.
The official emphasised that even positive actions like these are eventually judged in light of other actions like Beijing’s regard for human rights, its aggressive posture towards Taiwan, and its purported involvement in corporate espionage. In that sense, Brussels’ varied complaints against Beijing can be seen through yet another lens when it comes to China’s actions or inactivity in regard to Ukraine.
It’s this conflicting reality—China is needed by Europe for some things, but it’s also seen as a security danger and a bad actor on the international stage—that makes things so difficult.
In fact, despite the tense nature of their relations, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, as well as the leaders of France, Germany, and Spain, have all recently visited China.
In areas like climate change, setting the pace for emerging technology, and establishing a free-standing foreign policy, Brussels has set itself lofty goals. The EU chose a third option in which the US would continue to be its principal ally but closer commercial connections with China were established because it did not want to choose between the two major powers of the East and West.
In doing so, it intended to persuade China to adopt European viewpoints on a variety of issues, including human rights, the rules-based international order, and climate change.
European leaders in 2023 are aware of China’s significant security risks and the dangers of becoming unduly dependent on China. But they also acknowledge that they could need China’s assistance to accomplish their grandiose goals.
Future society will be heavily dependent on items like inexpensive electric cars, solar panels, and steel for wind farms. Sam Goodman from the China Strategic Risks Institute argues that China can create these items at a low cost and already has a good start in terms of being a significant supplier for the global market.
Additionally, Goodman points out that given the current economic situation for Europe, smaller governments may be more susceptible to the allure of Chinese funding for significant infrastructure projects.
“China has historically been keen to buy up or heavily invest in European infrastructure projects, be they nuclear power stations, roads, or water companies,” he said. “European nations have recently become less enthusiastic about this, but it might be tempting for countries with weak economies to accept some money as a temporary fix.”
Wide-ranging security issues have been raised by officials on numerous occasions. Senior EU security officials told CNN that China continues to be the main source of cyberattacks, with the majority of them concentrating on business espionage.
Others say that Europe doesn’t want to end up in the same position it did with Russia in terms of relying on one provider so heavily for energy or other resources, especially in the event China becomes even more forceful in its own backyard and goes from systemic rival to full-blown international pariah, as seen with Putin’s Moscow.
Between these fears over security, Europe’s international ambitions and China’s global ambitions, it might seem hard to pin down exactly what either side want from their future relationship.
“I don’t believe China has given up on Europe just yet. According to Charles Parton, a former first counsellor to the EU delegation in Beijing, “it hopes it can still influence the decisions of enough European nations to prevent America from fleeing in the struggle over new technology.”
“They have recently lost on things like Huawei and will be desperate to remain competitive on semiconductors, AI, and all the things that will matter a lot in the coming years,” the author continues.
More challenges arise for Europe. According to officials, Brussels is steadfast in defying Washington’s demands to entirely cut off relations with China while treading the fine line of the US remaining its closest partner. They assert that it will collaborate with China on some of the most significant global challenges at the same time as aiming to achieve its global goals without becoming unduly dependent on China.
It’s an ambitious strategy, but one that mostly leaves its own destiny up to chance. Or, at the very least, in the control of a nation that has seen its standing as a partner with Europe considerably decline over the past ten years.
