Tag: President Vladimir Putin

Wednesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin called a partial mobilisation in a televised national speech.
As a result, Putin has essentially violated an unspoken social bargain that Russians have with the government: in return for you not meddling in our personal affairs, we, the citizens, allow you, the government, to steal and fight.

The trapped Putin is leading a sizable majority of Russians into a new phase of the conflict.
On the home front, he has effectively declared war on the Russian male populace as well as the opposition and civic society.

Why is Putin taking the risk? Because he himself has encouraged the lack of public attention to the war for several months. Mobilization is fraught with serious discontent in society. That is precisely why he decided to make a partial mobilization, rather than a full one. In the long run, he laid a mine under his regime; in the short run, he will face sabotage.

For so long, Putin fostered a disinclination among the masses for war, a disinclination that will now cost the Russians, who are being turned into cannon fodder.

How might Wednesday’s announcement take Russians out of their comfort zone – those who remained indifferent to the “special operation” in the current circumstances?

Until now at least, the main emotion (or rather, its absence) felt here was indifference. That indifference comes in different shades – genuine, imitative or self-cultivated.

The Russian who falls within the 30% who “rather” support the “special operation” (nearly 50% “definitely” support it, slightly less than 20% do not support it) has no opinion of his own, prefers to borrow it from the TV or from Putin, blocks out for himself the bad news and alternative sources of information. But he sometimes does not like the war itself, and a person in this 30% could potentially change his attitude toward Putin and his initiatives.

The indifference of ordinary people benefits Putin. We, the citizens, do not interfere in the affairs of our political class and support their initiatives, but in exchange we ask them to maintain an impression of normality.

Which is what Putin does, skillfully combining partial mobilization in support of the war and himself (which happened immediately after the invasion began) and demobilization. Entertainment programs are back on TV, fireworks went off on annual Moscow City Day festivities (an ironic joke of this day was that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin celebrated the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive), and people live their normal lives – interest in the events in Ukraine has been low throughout the summer.

But even those who were indifferent could not ignore the Ukrainian counterattack. Although here, too, a reluctance to know the truth prevailed: if the officials said that it was not a retreat, but a regrouping of troops, then that was the case. Yet even the official Kremlin talk shows were full of admissions of failure.

This did not provoke a desire for peace – which is also present in the mood even of those who generally support the operation – but caused an explosion of aggression and hate speech. There were calls to “take off the white gloves” and already really punish Ukraine. This is what Putin has done by launching missile strikes on infrastructure – power plants and hydroelectric facilities. This is revenge and anger, but anger that reveals weakness rather than strength.

The radicals are unhappy with Putin and demand a war to the bitter end and general mobilization. But the Kremlin dictator lacks the resources for a quick victory, including, above all, human resources (which is why he is beginning to recruit cannon fodder, even from convicts serving their sentences).

That said, it is not profitable for Putin to provoke the discontent of the middle classes, who are happy to watch the war from their sofa on TV, but are not about to go to the trenches. Moreover, general mobilization would divert the human capital needed for the economy – simply put, there would be hardly anyone to work.

Discontent with Putin on the part of radical hawks is not a new phenomenon. But nevertheless, it has not yet manifested itself so vividly. However, they have no chance of competing with Putin – the ultra-conservative radicals will be suppressed with the same energy as the pro-Western liberals: the dictator will not tolerate any competition in the niche of war and imperialism.

Public opinion in Russia is very inert, and something extraordinary will have to happen for the mood to change in earnest. The same is true of economic problems. Until now the social-economic crisis wasn’t so visible. The full-fledged beginning of it is being postponed, but, as some economists say, will probably manifest itself in late 2022/early 2023.

While public opinion is in a state of inertia, Putin has a chance to find words to pass off defeats as victories. He could stop the war right now by describing the losses as gains. And partly he did, when he decided to fix the losses by announcing the urgent holding of referendums in the four occupied territories of Ukraine on their accession to Russia.

It’s evident that Putin is not ready to stop what he started. He presumes that Russia will succeed on the battlefield. Or at least would gain a stronger foothold in the occupied territories, declaring them Russian, in which case any fighting in them would be assessed as an attack on Russia. And then he will have the opportunity to transfer the “special operation” into the official status of war and to create the possibility of general mobilization. Now Putin has announced only limited, “partial” mobilization.

And that could all be a mistake. The longer Putin delays ending the war – even given the already publicly expressed wariness of his main “friends” Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – the harder it will be for him to make peace later on in terms that could be portrayed as victory.

Yes, public opinion is mentally prepared for a long war, but who knows when the fatigue of constant tension, which has to be relieved by carefully nurtured indifference, will break through and change the mood. Putin says he has time and the Russian army is in no hurry.

But as time passes, defeats will become increasingly difficult to present as victories – above all for the hesitating 30% who “rather” support him.

President Vladimir Putin was quoted on Saturday by the Tass news agency as saying that Russia has reached an agreement with Belarus, which is next door, to place tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.

Putin stated that such a move wouldn’t contravene nuclear nonproliferation agreements and added that the US has nuclear weapons deployed on the soil of European partners.

The stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which borders Poland, has long been a concern for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, according to Putin.

‘We agreed with Lukashenko that we would place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus without violating the nonproliferation regime,’ Tass quoted Putin as saying.

Russia will have completed the construction of a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July 1, Putin said, adding that Russia would not actually be transferring control of the arms to Minsk.

Russia has already stationed 10 aircraft in Belarus capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, he said.

The move comes as the US imposed fresh sanctions on Belarus this week as punishment for its continued support of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The newly imposed sanctions targeted seven Belarusian elections officials, two state-owned automotive manufacturers and President Alexander Lukashenko’s private Boening 737 aircraft.

The seven officials are part of Belarus’ Central Election Commission, which was originally sanctioned in December 2020 after being widely accused of rigging the presidential election in Lukashenko’s favour and cracking down on dissent.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that the U.S. ‘will continue to impose costs on the regime and those who support it for their repression of the people of Belarus” and for the Belarusian government’s support for Russia’s war.

The State Department also imposed visa restrictions on 14 additional people involved in “policies to threaten and intimidate the Belarusian people.’

Last month, leaked documents revealed a top secret plan by the Kremlin to annex Belarus and absorb it into Russia by 2030.

The bodies of the Ukrainians were found lying next to each other on the grass, with a crater next to them in the ground.
The victims’ arms pointed to the location where they had passed away as they were dragged there by Russian mercenaries.

In what seems to be a scheme to booby-trap the dead, a speaker adds in husky Russian, “Let’s plant a grenade on them.”

Another says of the Ukrainian soldiers who will arrive to retrieve the victims, “There is no need for a grenade, we will just beat them in.”
At that point, the mercenaries discover they are out of ammunition.

These events seen and heard on battlefield video, exclusive to CNN, along with access to Wagner recruits fighting in Ukraine, and candid, rare interviews CNN has conducted with a former Wagner commander now seeking asylum in Europe, combine to give an unprecedented look at the state of Russia’s premier mercenary force.

While problems of supply and morale, as well as allegations of war crimes have been well documented among regular Russian troops, the existence of similar crises among Wagner mercenaries, often described as President Vladimir Putin’s off-the-books shock troops, is a dire omen for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Wagner forces have for several years enjoyed global notoriety. But as Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine comes apart at the seams, and the announcement of a “partial mobilization” for much-needed conscripts has prompted more than 200,000 Russian citizens to flee to neighboring countries, the cracks in this supposedly elite force are showing.

Since its creation in 2014, Wagner’s mandate, international footprint and reputation have swelled. Widely considered by analysts to be a Kremlin-approved private military company, its fighters have battled in Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2014 and in Syria, as well as operating in several African countries, including Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Mali and the Central African Republic.

With a reputation in Russia as a reliable and valuable force, Wagner private soldiers have bolstered Moscow’s global interests and military resources, already stretched fighting a war in Syria in support of the Assad regime. As CNN has reported, their deployments have often been key to Russian control of lucrative resources, from Sudanese gold to Syrian oil.

Read CNN’s special report on Putin’s Private Army.

Flaunting modern equipment in recruiting videos, with heavy weapons and even helicopters, they resemble US Special Forces.

“I am convinced that if Russia did not use mercenary groups on such a massive scale, there would be no question of the success that the Russian army has achieved so far,” Marat Gabidullin – a former Wagner commander who was once in charge of 95 mercenaries in Syria – told CNN.

In touch with former comrades now fighting in Ukraine, Gabidullin said that Russia’s use of mercenaries has ramped up as the Kremlin’s execution of its war has fallen into disarray. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told CNN that Wagner troops were being deployed in the “most difficult and important missions” in Ukraine, playing a key role in Russian victories in Mariupol and Kherson.

The Kremlin did not respond to CNN’s requests for comment.

Limited official information about Wagner and long-standing Kremlin denials about its existence and ties to the Russian state have only added to its infamy and allure, while helping the group to cloud analysis of its exact capabilities and activities.

In reality, though, Wagner – like Russia – is struggling in Ukraine, according to the video testimony of the group’s own mercenary fighters.

More than seven months of fighting have thrown a harsh light on failings in Russia’s military performance in Ukraine. Russia’s small gains, especially compared to Putin’s initial ambitious targets in the war, have come at huge cost, decimating frontline units and starving many of manpower, as well as critically important experience.

Battlefield experience is one of two factors ex-Wagner commander Gabidullin – who left the group in 2019 and has since published a memoir of his time working for them – says separates mercenaries from regular Russian troops, the other being money.

“The backbone of these groups was always made up of very experienced people who had passed through several wars anyway,” he told CNN.

After serving as a junior officer with an airborne unit in the dying days of the Soviet Union, Gabidullin returned to military life as a Wagner recruit following Russia’s 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine. He said many key Wagner personnel may, like him, have previously fought in Ukraine as well as in Syria, gaining valuable combat experience alien to most regular Russian troops.

“They have more weighty, more meaningful experience than the army. The army are young soldiers who were forced to sign a contract, they have no experience,” he said.

It’s what makes such paramilitary forces in Ukraine, of which Wagner is just one, so valuable to Russia.

“The Russian army cannot handle [the war] without mercenaries,” according to Gabidullin, adding that there’s “a very big myth, a very big obfuscation about a strong Russian army.”

Today, at least 5,000 mercenaries tied to the Wagner group are operating with Russian forces in Ukraine, Andrii Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency who has been monitoring Wagner in Ukraine, told CNN. This figure was backed up by a French intelligence source who noted that some Wagner fighters had left the African continent to bolster the group’s efforts in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has increasingly relied on Wagner fighters as assault troops, according to Ukraine’s defense ministry. Hidden from official Russian death counts and available for deniable operations, they’ve borne a burden of casualties that have been politically sensitive for Putin in Russia.

“Wagner has been suffering high losses in Ukraine, especially and unsurprisingly among young and inexperienced fighters,” according to a senior US defense source speaking in September.

A simple equation underlies the employment of Wagner forces, according to Gabidullin: “Russian peace for American dollars.”

The mercenaries can earn up to $5,000 per month.

Wagner fighters have even been offered bonuses – all paid in US dollars – for wiping out Ukrainian tanks or units, according to a senior Ukrainian defense source and based on the intelligence gathered on Wagner since the start of the war by Ukrainian authorities.

According to the UK’s Ministry of Defense, Wagner fighters have also been allocated specific sectors of the front line, operating almost as normal army units, a stark change from their history of distinct, limited missions in Ukraine.

Yusov also said that Wagner is increasingly being used to patch holes in the Russian front line. This was also confirmed by a US senior defense official, who added that Wagner is being used across different front lines unlike Chechen fighters, for instance, who are focused around the Russian offensive aimed at Bakhmut.

That has led to significant logistical challenges, he says, with the need to supply Wagner troops with ammunition, food and support for extended operations, all while Ukraine has upped its attacks on Russia’s logistics.

Bodycam footage purportedly from Wagner fighters in August passed to CNN by the Ukrainian defense ministry shows mercenaries complaining of a lack of body armor and helmets. In another video a fighter complains about orders to attack Ukrainian positions when his unit is out of ammunition.

Wagner’s ranks have also been depleted by battlefield losses. In response, they’ve turned to unusually public recruitment.

Billboards have sprung up in Russia calling for new recruits to Wagner. Adorned with a phone number and picture of camouflage-clad fighters, their slogan – “Orchestra ‘W’ Awaits You” – alludes to Wagner’s past nickname as the “orchestra.”

The wide net cast by the group’s recruiting efforts matches a shift from its past secrecy. Even Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin finally admitted his role as Wagner chief in late September, having spent years trying to distance himself from the mercenary group through repeated denials, and even taking Russian media outlets investigating him to court.

Wagner’s invitations to contact recruiters have also spread via social media and online. One recruiter contacted by CNN offered a monthly salary of “at least 240,000 rubles” (about $4,000) with the length of a “business trip” – code for a deployment – of at least four months. Much of the recruiter’s message listed medical conditions that excluded applicants from joining: from cancer to hepatitis C and substance abuse.

In contrast to its image as a military elite organization, a Wagner recruiter had one startling admission regarding recruits when contacted by a CNN journalist: no military experience necessary.

The message finished with a code word – “Morgan” – that applicants were to give at the gate of the Wagner facility in Krasnodar, Russia.

In September, video surfaced appearing to be Prigozhin recruiting prisoners from Russian jails for Wagner His offer: a promise of clemency for six months’ combat service in Ukraine, propping up Russia’s flailing invasion.

It’s a move that would have been unthinkable months ago for the private military company once considered one of the most professional units in the Kremlin’s arsenal.

“An act of desperation” is how the ex-Wagner commander Gabidullin described the appeal.

Prigozhin’s apparent jailhouse recruitment drive matches broader Russian efforts to mobilize the country’s prison population for combat, offering monthly salaries worth thousands of dollars and death payments of tens of thousands of dollars to recruits’ families.

For both Wagner comrades and their Ukrainian adversaries, that’s worrying.

“[Wagner] are ready to send anyone, just anyone,” Ukrainian Prosecutor Yuriy Belousov, told CNN. “There is no criteria for professionalism anymore.”

Working on Ukrainian investigations into possible Russian war crimes, Belousov fears that this lax recruiting will see the scale of war crimes increase.

Although direct recruitment from prisons is a new step, Gabidullin said that a criminal record hadn’t been an obstacle to employment with Wagner. He himself says he had served three years in prison for murder and told CNN of prominent Wagner commanders who had served around the world with the group after prison sentences.

Wagner’s struggles in Ukraine have set in motion a wider problem: discontent in its ranks. For a group that depends on the appeal of its salaries and work, that’s critical.

From intercepted phone calls, Ukrainian intelligence services in August noted a “general decline in morale and the psychological state” of Wagner troops, Ukrainian defense intelligence spokesman Yusov said. It’s a trend he’s also seen in Russian troops more broadly.

The reduction in Wagner recruitment requirements point to demoralization too, he said, and the number of “truly professional soldiers who are willing to volunteer to fight with Wagner” is also decreasing.

Ex-commander Gabidullin, who says he talks to his old comrades on an almost daily basis, explained that this demoralization was due to their dissatisfaction “with the overall organization of the fighting: [the Russian leadership’s] inability to make competent decisions, to organize battles.”

For one mercenary who contacted Gabidullin for advice, that incompetence was too much. “He called me and said: ‘That’s it, I won’t be there anymore. I’m not taking part in this anymore,’” Gabidullin told CNN.

And as Russia’s prospects of victory in Ukraine – or even claiming a positive outcome – look thin, life as a Russian mercenary doesn’t hold the same appeal it might once have had.

“It may be that the money isn’t worth it anymore,” Ukrainian prosecutor Belousov said.

In one of the many videos streaming out of Ukraine’s frontlines, the grim reality of Wagner’s war is plain to see in footage provided to CNN, which allegedly shows the group’s operations.

In one clip, a fallen Wagner mercenary lies, in death, almost peacefully, his left hand gently gripping the black earth. Around him, the battlefield smolders alongside dead bodies and the flaming wreckage of their armored vehicles. Occasional shots crackle through the smoke.

“I’m sorry, bro, I’m sorry,” the soldier’s comrade says, lightly patting his back, stripped of his shirt by the battle that killed him. “Let’s get out of here, if they shoot us, we’ll lie next to him.”