Global coronavirus cases are expected to gradually increase in the coming months, reaching approximately 18.7 million per day by February.
The current daily average is around 16.7 million, according to the University of Washington report.
It is far fewer than last winter when the Omicron variant pushed the estimated peak daily average to about 80 million – and the increase is also not expected to cause a big increase in deaths.
COVID infections in the US are predicted to rise by a third to more than a million per day over the same period, driven by factors such as people being inside more over the winter.
But a surge in Germany has already peaked, according to the study’s authors, who expect cases there to fall by more than a third to about 190,000.
The IHME suggests the recent rise in cases and hospitalisations in Germany could be down to Omicron subvariants BQ.1 or BQ.1.1, and that it might spread to other parts of Europe in the coming weeks.
Another Omicron subvariant called XBB is also driving a surge in admissions in Singapore, according to the analysis.
The University of Washington researchers say the variant is more transmissible but less severe.
The vaccination, according to ministers, will now be a part of the autumn booster program.
26 million people are eligible for some version of the booster, but Moderna estimates that just 13 million doses of its new vaccine will be made accessible this year.
According to health officials, people should receive any booster that is recommended because all vaccinations offer protection.
The initial pandemic vaccines were created to prepare the body to combat the virus’s first version, which appeared in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019.
The Covid virus has since mutated substantially, with a stream of new variants emerging that can dodge some of our immune defenses. They have caused large surges in cases around the world.
The original vaccines still provide strong protection against becoming severely ill or dying, but companies are tweaking them to match the virus as it evolves.
Cases of coronavirus are currently falling in the UK. In mid-to-late July, around 2.5 million people tested positive for coronavirus.
‘Sharpened tool’
Moderna’s latest vaccine targets both the original strain and the first Omicron variant (BA.1), which emerged last winter. It is known as a bivalent vaccine as it takes aim at two forms of Covid.
Dr. June Raine, the regulator’s chief executive, said: “What this bivalent vaccine gives us is a sharpened tool in our armory to help protect us against this disease as the virus continues to evolve.”
Experiments on 437 people showed the updated vaccine was safe and gave better immune protection against newer variants.
Levels of antibodies that were able to stick to and disable Omicron (BA.1) were 1.7 times higher in people given the new vaccine. Tests against more recent Omicron variants (BA.4 and BA.5), which are causing the UK’s current wave, also showed higher levels of protection with the updated vaccine.
However, it is far from clear what that means in terms of preventing someone from becoming seriously ill.
Additionally, it is uncertain what variants we will be facing in the coming months and exactly how well the updated vaccine will perform against them.
“This represents the first authorization of an Omicron-containing bivalent vaccine; this bivalent vaccine has an important role to play in protecting people in the UK from Covid-19 as we enter the winter months,” he said.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI), which advises governments in England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland, has confirmed the following groups should be offered some form of booster in the autumn:
health and social care staff
everyone aged 50 and over
carers who are over the age of 16
people over five whose health puts them at greater risk, this includes pregnant women
people over five who share a house with somebody with a weakened immune system
Prof Wei Shen Lim, from the JCVI, said: “It is important that everyone who is eligible takes up a booster this autumn, whichever vaccine is on offer.”
Originally those aged 50-65 were not going to be jabbed. However, the immunization campaign has been expanded because of the rapid spread of variants, uncertainty about how the virus will mutate, and the expectation that we will are likely to be more social – and therefore give the virus a helping hand this winter – including at Christmas.
However, most people under 50 will not be boosted in the coming months. The focus remains on preventing those most at risk from becoming seriously ill, rather than stopping the young from passing the virus on to older relatives.
Moderna is not the only company updating its vaccines. Pfizer has also been developing vaccines that can target Omicron. The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, however, is not being updated.
Health ministers have officially given the go-ahead for the bivalent vaccines. In England, Steve Barclay said “vaccines remain our best defense against Covid” and said the rollout would begin in September. In Wales, Eluned Morgan said vaccines “have saved countless lives” and urged everyone who was eligible to come forward.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the Omicron coronavirus variant poses a high risk of infection surges around the globe.
The variant could lead to severe consequences in some regions, the WHO said on Monday.
The head of the organisation, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, renewed a call for a global push to get vaccines to poorer nations.
Covid-19 is “not done with us” yet he warned.
The variant was detected in South Africa earlier this month with initial evidence suggesting it has a higher re-infection risk. South Africa has been praised for its prompt reporting of the variant.
“Omicron has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic,” the WHO said.
Speaking on Monday, Dr Tedros said scientists around the world are working to discover if the new variant is associated with higher transmission, risk of reinfection and how it reacts to vaccines.
“Omicron’s very emergence is another reminder that although many of us think we are done with Covid-19, it is not done with us,” he said.
He added that no deaths have been linked to the new variant yet.
Cases have already been reported in a number of countries including Canada, the UK, Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands.
The new variant has prompted the UK, EU and US to issue a travel ban on Southern African countries – a decision criticised by South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Travel into Australia for international students and “skilled workers” holding visas was meant to re-start on Wednesday but has now been delayed until 15 December.
Israel has also banned foreigners from entering the country.
The US has also followed suit with Joe Biden telling Americans to “go get your booster”. He also urged people to wear masks indoors.
But Mr Biden also said he did not anticipate any further US travel restrictions or lockdowns at this time.
There have been more than 261 million cases and five million deaths around the globe since the pandemic started in 2020, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
South Africa reported 2,800 new infections on Sunday, a rise from the daily average of 500 in the previous week.
Government adviser and epidemiologist Salim Abdool Karim said he expected the number of cases to reach more than 10,000 a day by the end of the week, and for hospitals to come under pressure in the next two to three weeks.
Dr Phaahla said he wanted to “reiterate that there is absolutely no need to panic” because this “is no new territory for us”.
“We are now more than 20 months’ experienced in terms of Covid-19, various variants and waves,” he added at a media briefing.
On Monday, Japan became the latest country to reinstate tough border restrictions, banning all foreigners from entering from 30 November.
The UK, EU and US are among those who earlier imposed travel bans on South Africa and other regional states.
UN Secretary General António Guterres said he was “deeply concerned” about the isolation of southern Africa, adding that “the people of Africa cannot be blamed for the immorally low level of vaccinations available in Africa”.
The bans and restrictions have left the plans of a huge number of travellers up in the air.
South African Annalee Veysey, who is getting treatment for cancer in South Africa, was expecting to be reunited with her family in the UK early in December.
She has been separated from them for the last 15 months because of earlier travel restrictions and her treatment.
“It’s almost two years of my life I’ve missed out with my family. Especially if you’ve had a journey with cancer, you find what your family means to you,” she told the BBC, adding that she felt “desperate”.
South Africa’s main airport in Johannesburg was getting quieter over the weekend as restrictions were taking effect
Hannah Day is stuck in Pretoria. She flew to South Africa last week after she got news that her son, who lives there, was in hospital after being bitten by a snake.
He is now recovering but Ms Day needs to return to the UK for work. “I can self-isolate, but I cannot afford to pay for the quarantine,” she told the BBC.
The WHO has warned against countries hastily imposing travel curbs, saying they should look to a “risk-based and scientific approach”.
The world body’s Africa director Matshidiso Moeti said on Sunday: “With the Omicron variant now detected in several regions of the world, putting in place travel bans that target Africa attacks global solidarity.”
However, Rwanda and Angola are among African states that have announced a restriction on flights to and from South Africa.
South Africa’s foreign ministry spokesman Clayson Monyela described their decision as “quite regrettable, very unfortunate, and I will even say sad”.
In a speech on Sunday, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said the bans would not be effective in preventing the spread of the variant.
“The only thing the prohibition on travel will do is to further damage the economies of the affected countries and undermine their ability to respond to, and recover from, the pandemic,” he said.
Current regulations in South Africa make it mandatory to wear face coverings in public, and restrict indoor gatherings to 750 people and outdoor gatherings to 2,000.
Mr Ramaphosa said South Africa would not impose new restrictions, but would “undertake broad consultations on making vaccination mandatory for specific activities and locations”.
There are no vaccine shortages in South Africa itself, and Mr Ramaphosa urged more people to get jabbed, saying that remained the best way to fight the virus.
Health experts said that Gauteng, which includes Johannesburg, had entered a fourth wave, and most hospital admissions were of unvaccinated people.
Omicron has now been detected in a number of countries around the world, including the UK, Germany, Australia and Israel.
In other developments:
China said it would offer 1bn doses of vaccines to African countries on top of the 200m it had already supplied
US Covid adviser Anthony Fauci says the government is on “high alert” and that spread is inevitable
A Czech woman who came back from Namibia recently was confirmed to have the Omicron variant
Portugal has detected 13 cases of the variant among players and staff of Lisbon-based Belenenses SAD football club
Australia has paused its plans to reopen its borders in light of the Omicron variant
A former Member of Parliament in Botswana, Alfred Rabashemi Madigele has alleged that the first cases of the new COVID-19 variant the southern African country recorded last week ‘was detected in 4 diplomats of Ghanaian origin.’
Madigele made the claim in a November 28 Facebook post protesting the fact that Botswana and South Africa were among the first countries – along with others in the southern Africa region – to be slapped with flight bans by the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States over the new variant.
His post stressed that the two countries had rather served the world well by detecting and raising alarm relative to the Omicron variant of the virus known as SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.529.
His gripe includes that Botswana had failed to disclose that the variant was found in diplomats and quizzed further how and why Ghana and other African countries are not subjected to a similar ban.
There has been a strong demand for information by Ghanaians commenting on his post asking that he gives further and better particulars on his classification of “diplomats of Ghanaian origin.”
Among those making the information request are Professor Kweku Azar, Dr. Kwame Sarpong Asiedu of CDD-Ghana and former presidential press secretary Ben Dotse-Malor.
The Botswanan medic has yet to respond to any of the inquiries at the time of filing this report. Meanwhile, his government explained the status of the country relative to the new variant in a press conference on Sunday.
Read full post of the ex-MP below:
Why are we not telling the world that Botswana has sophisticated scientists who managed to do and identify genetic sequencing of the new variant named Omicron ahead of all countries?
Are we and RSA being punished for our brilliance? Why are we not telling the world that this variant was detected in 4 diplomats of Ghanaian origin? Why are we not telling the world to not only target us, but target Ghana and other western African countries?
Omicron variant is possibly one of the several variants in circulation we will keep getting new variants of Covid-19 time and again. It’s the way that we respond to these that will define us, that will define the course of epidemic response for generations to come.
The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) is an independent group of experts that periodically monitors and evaluates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assesses if specific mutations and combinations of mutations alter the behaviour of the virus. The TAG-VE was convened on 26 November 2021 to assess the SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.529.
The B.1.1.529 variant was first reported to WHO from South Africa on 24 November 2021. The epidemiological situation in South Africa has been characterized by three distinct peaks in reported cases, the latest of which was predominantly the Delta variant.
In recent weeks, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant. The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9 November 2021.
This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs.
The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant.
