West African Sahel States, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, all currently under military rule, have signed a security pact on Saturday. This pact pledges mutual support in the event of rebellion or external aggression.
These three nations have been grappling with the presence of Islamic insurgent groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State. Additionally, their relationships with neighbouring countries and international partners have been strained due to the recent coups.
The most recent coup in Niger exacerbated tensions between these three nations and the countries in the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). ECOWAS has threatened to use force to restore constitutional rule in Niger.
Mali and Burkina Faso have committed to assisting Niger if it faces an attack. The pact, known as the Alliance of Sahel States, states that any attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one or more of the signatory parties will be considered aggression against all of them. The signatory states will provide assistance individually or collectively, which may include the use of armed force.
Mali’s junta leader, Assimi Goita, announced the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States via his social media account, stating, “I have today signed with the Heads of State of Burkina Faso and Niger the Liptako-Gourma charter establishing the Alliance of Sahel States, with the aim of establishing a collective defence and mutual assistance framework.”
All three nations were previously members of the France-supported G5 Sahel alliance joint force, which also included Chad and Mauritania. The alliance was launched in 2017 to combat Islamist groups in the region. However, Mali left the alliance after a military coup, and Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum declared the force “dead” following Mali’s departure in May of the previous year.
Relations between France and these three states have deteriorated since the coups. France has withdrawn its troops from Mali and Burkina Faso and is engaged in a tense standoff with the junta that seized power in Niger. The junta requested the withdrawal of French troops and its ambassador, a request that France has refused to acknowledge.
The Agbogbomefia of Asogli State, Togbe Afede XIV, has joined the collective voices urging the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to refrain from employing force as a means of restoring constitutional order in Niger.
He stressed that a diplomatic approach should be prioritized over the contemplated military intervention by the regional organization.
Togbe Afede XIV said, “Wars are not easily won; what is happening in Ukraine should provide valuable lessons for us. Diplomacy should be our path. I have no doubt that… we should avoid committing our limited resources to a war that’s unlikely to yield victory.”
Addressing the audience during the inauguration of the 2023 Asogli Yam Festival in Accra, Togbe Afede XIV additionally urged traditional leaders to play a role in resolving chieftaincy conflicts within Ghana.
He emphasized that the resolution of these disputes requires transparency and honesty from traditional authorities. Togbe Afede highlighted that disputes frequently arise due to a lack of truthfulness on the part of one or more parties involved.
“Wherever there are disputes, somebody is not telling the truth so, I will encourage our chiefs to hold to the path of strictest honesty so, we can establish peace on the chieftaincy front and also fight the cause of peace across our country and our continent,” he said.
The occasion, which also commemorated the 20th Anniversary of Togbe Afede’s tenure as Agbogbomefia of the Asogli State, brought together a gathering of traditional leaders hailing from the Volta Region, Nana Kobina Nketsia V (the Paramount Chief of Essikado Traditional Area in the Western Region), members of the diplomatic community, religious leaders, and various esteemed guests.
During his speech, Togbe Afede emphasized the pivotal role of peace in national development.
He reiterated the Asogli State’s unwavering commitment to collaborative efforts aimed at strengthening peace.
He also expressed his resolute dedication to addressing ongoing chieftaincy conflicts within the country. Togbe Afede firmly asserted, “Between peace and anarchy, there is no choice.”
Member of Parliament for North Tongu, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, has emphasized the significant logistical hurdles that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) would encounter if it were to deploy troops to Niger.
Credible sources indicate that ECOWAS would need a substantial force of at least 50,000 troops to effectively address the security concerns in the West African nation.
However, the current commitments from member states fall far short of this requirement, according to Mr Ablakwa.
Presently, only a modest pledge of 800 to 1000 troops has been made by Ivory Coast, leaving ECOWAS facing a substantial gap in its security deployment plans, he said on JoyNews on Saturday, August 19.
“If you really look at ECOWAS today, it’s Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, and Ivory Coast. Nigeria is already stretched with Boko Haram. Tinubu [Nigeria’s President] doesn’t have support. Ivory Coast says they can do 1,000 [soldiers].
“Senegal, I know has received a juicy offer from America to send their troops to Haiti to support the American intervention there because Haiti is totally getting out of control. They are likely to accept that. We’re left with Ghana, how are we going to get those numbers?” he said on JoyNews’ Newsfile on Saturday.
Recounting when the regional bloc introduced an initiative to combat extremism in the area, Mr Ablakwa said it was only Ghana and Nigeria who made a financial commitment.
“Only two countries contributed, Nigeria; $20 million and Ghana; $5 million. The rest said we should give them time,” he said.
Mr. Ablakwa, citing ECOWAS member states’ historical reluctance to fully participate, expresses skepticism about achieving the required number of troops for the mission in Niger.
In the meantime, ECOWAS has clarified that the potential deployment of military forces to restore democracy in Niger is a last resort after exhausting all other options. Abdel-Fatau Musah, the ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security, emphasized that the intention is not to initiate a war against Niger.
Abdel-Fatau Musah also acknowledged that ECOWAS is prepared to initiate fresh negotiations in Niger in pursuit of a peaceful resolution on Saturday, August 19th. He reiterated that ECOWAS is open to engaging with the junta to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The Centre for Public Opinion and Awareness (CenPOA) has cautioned President Akufo-Addo against allowing personal ties with the French to impact his decisions regarding the Niger coup.
The Executive Director of CenPOA, Michael Donyina Mensah, noted that French business interests in Niger could lead to speculations about their involvement in the crisis, potentially seeking support from individuals like Akufo-Addo due to their close relationship.
In an interview with the media, Mensah urged caution, emphasizing that the intervention in Niger’s crisis should be well-considered, especially given Ghana and Nigeria’s central roles in ECOWAS efforts.
”I want to advise President Akufo-Addo to tread cautiously in how he intervenes in the matter. There are speculations that the French are behind what is happening because they want to protect their business interests. If they are indeed behind what is happening, they will need people to help them, and President Akufo-Addo is a possible target. He is a possible target because of his strong ties and relationship with the French”.
”As a result, we want to caution President Akufo-Addo to examine his actions critically. He should be cautious in his approach and consider the potential consequences for Ghana. He should not let his personal interests, relationships, or ties influence his decision. He has strong ties with the French government, so he will most likely be apprehended for it. However, we request that you exercise caution and refrain from doing anything that could have serious consequences for Ghana”.
Mensah stressed that diplomatic solutions must be fully explored before resorting to military action, as the coup in Niger had already occurred without casualties.
He underscored the need for careful decision-making and avoiding actions that might have severe consequences for Ghana.
Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Abdel-Fatau Musah, has reaffirmed the cohesive stance of all chiefs of defence staff from member states in relation to discussions on interventions in Niger.
These discussions took place during a two-day meeting held at Burma Camp in Accra, attended by military chiefs of staff from all member states except those under military rule and Cape Verde.
The purpose was to determine the course of action following the ousting of President Mohammed Bazhoum.
In an interview after the second day of deliberations, Mr Abdel-Fatau Musah conveyed a resolute sense of unity within the Western African Bloc and confidence in the decisions reached during the meeting.
He dispelled the notion of potential dissent among the member states in good standing, stating, “It is beyond our expectation. All the member states have committed something very concretely. All of them. And yesterday we had the arrival of Guinea-Bissau to join us. And so everybody is here and everybody has committed something for the mission. We are very pleased with it.”
Contrary to assumptions that military intervention might be imminent, Mr Musah clarified that it was not the primary option, but rather a contingency that had been thoughtfully considered.
He emphasised the commitment to exploring peaceful avenues for resolving the crisis, while ensuring the restoration of constitutional order.
Mr Musah explained, “This is a plan B. We are ready, but we still give peace a chance. We want them to come forward with very concrete proposals, for a peaceful resolution of the crisis. And that begins by them receiving a mission from ECOWAS. All we want is to make sure that the right thing is done, constitutional order is restored. We do not want to go the military route, and so we are giving every opportunity for the peaceful option to work.”
Since the coup on July 26th, the military junta in Niger has refrained from engaging with ECOWAS or its representatives.
They even issued a warning that the safety of any ECOWAS representative visiting the country could not be guaranteed.
Addressing this stance, Abdel-Fatau Musah conveyed a positive shift, stating, “Over the last couple of days, we have already received assurances that they are ready to receive a mission, and so we will take them at their word. They are ready to engage, and we will oblige them.”
Concerned about misinformation circulating regarding a potential ECOWAS military intervention, Abdel-Fatau Musah urged caution among the media and the public.
He appealed for reliance on official information issued by the ECOWAS commission and advised against being swayed by unverified reports on social media.
“What I would say is that there is so much orchestrated and organized resistance and everybody is focused on the military option, military option. This is not the preferred option of ECOWAS. And so I would appeal to the media and all people who actually love the region to wait for official information from the ECOWAS commission and not to be tempted by social media,” he stated.
So far, ECOWAS has;
Condemned the coup and demanded the immediate and unconditional release of President Mohamed Bazoum and other detained officials.
Suspended Niger from all its decision-making bodies and imposed sanctions on the coup leaders and their collaborators, including travel bans, asset freezes, and suspension of financial flows.
Activated its standby force with all its elements, for a possible deployment to Niger to restore constitutional order, while also giving a chance for peaceful dialogue with the junta.
The Member of Parliament for Ningo Prampram, Sam Nartey George, has cautioned President Akufo-Addo against hastily engaging in a military intervention in Niger in the wake of the recent coup.
He has urged the President to avoid putting Ghanaian soldiers’ lives at risk.
Using Twitter as his platform, the MP emphasized that Ghana’s military currently stands as a testament to the commitment and professionalism of the nation’s officers.
However, he expressed concern that the government has not adequately invested in the necessary tools and equipment to support them.
He wrote, “Dear President @NAkufoAddo, you know better than us all the pitiful state of our armed forces for foreign military intervention in another sovereign state. You know that despite the professional attitude and disposition of our gallant officers, you have failed to retool and equip our forces. Do not send them to untimely useless death!”
Invoking international law, the lawmaker cited Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter, which prohibits any state from taking illegal actions that undermine the sovereignty of another nation.
He also challenged the notion of military intervention being considered by President Akufo-Addo and other West African leaders within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
“Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the illegal action you and your cronies in ECOWAS are considering. Even if you wanted to hide under Article 42, do you have a UNSC resolution authorising an intervention? There is no clear evidence of the 3-basis required to trigger R2P so respect the sovereignty of Niger,” he stated.
He advocated for a more pragmatic approach involving non-kinetic measures to engage, rather than an aggressive stance aimed at appeasing external powers. He insisted that any decision to involve the Ghana Armed Forces in a senseless war should require the approval of Parliament, emphasizing the demand for the same.
Sam George further recommended focusing the nation’s limited resources on improving the living conditions of Ghanaians and refraining from interfering in other countries’ affairs. He concluded by using the phrase “‘Dzi wo fie asem’ Mr President,” which translates to “Mind your business, Mr. President.”
Niger’s mutinous soldiers have declared their intention to charge ousted President Mohamed Bazoum with “high treason” and the act of jeopardizing state security.
This announcement came shortly after the junta expressed their willingness to engage in discussions with West African countries to address the escalating regional turmoil.
If proven guilty, Bazoum could potentially be subject to the death penalty as outlined in Niger’s penal code.
Spokesman Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane said on state television Sunday night that the military regime had “gathered the necessary evidence to prosecute before competent national and international authorities the ousted president and his local and foreign accomplices for high treason and for undermining the internal and external security of Niger.” The announcement said high-ranking West African politicians and “their international mentors” have made false allegations and attempted to derail a peaceful solution to the crisis in order to justify a military intervention.
It said Bazoum was being charged following his exchanges with these people.
The statement did not identify specific Western countries and did not specify a date for the trial. Bazoum, Niger’s democratically elected president, was ousted by members of his presidential guard on July 26 and has since been under house arrest with his wife and son in the presidential compound in the capital, Niamey.
Individuals within the president’s inner circle and those affiliated with his ruling party have revealed that the family’s access to electricity and water has been severed, and their food supplies are dwindling.
The junta, however, refuted these claims on Sunday night and accused West African politicians and global partners of spreading misinformation to undermine the junta’s credibility.
Mounting international pressure is urging the junta to release and reinstate President Bazoum.
Following the coup, the West African regional organization ECOWAS issued a seven-day ultimatum for the regime to restore him to power, threatening potential military intervention if the demand went unmet.
Yet, this deadline came and went without any actions from either side.
On Monday, the African Union Peace and Security Council is convening to discuss Niger’s crisis, potentially overturning the decision if it perceives broader continental peace and security to be compromised by an intervention.
As time passes, uncertainty grows and conflicting messages accumulate. On Sunday evening, before the military accused Bazoum of treason, a member of the junta’s communication team informed journalists that talks with ECOWAS had been approved and were scheduled for the upcoming days.
Simultaneously, an Islamic scholar mediation team from neighboring Nigeria, which had met with the junta over the weekend, conveyed that the regime was receptive to dialogue with ECOWAS.
Previous ECOWAS attempts to engage with the junta encountered obstacles, with their delegations being denied entry into the country. The newfound willingness to engage in talks might be influenced by ECOWAS’ pressures, encompassing significant economic and travel sanctions that are already impacting the country’s impoverished population of approximately 25 million.
Nonetheless, Sahel experts suggest that this does not guarantee substantive progress in the dialogue.
’Let’s see what these negotiations actually look like, because it’s also in the junta’s benefit to at least entertain talks.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be serious about them,” said Aneliese Bernard, a former U.S. State Department official who specialised in African affairs and is now director of Strategic Stabilization Advisors, a risk advisory group. But while talk of dialogue ensues, so does military mobilisation.
In a memo from Senegal’s security forces dated Aug. 11, seen by The Associated Press, it ordered the “regroupment” from bases in Senegal on Monday as part of its contribution to the ECOWAS mission in Niger.
It was unclear what exactly was ordered to move, or where it was going.
In the weeks since the coup, the junta has entrenched itself in power, appointing a new government and leveraging anti-French sentiment against its former colonial ruler to shore up support among the population, creating a tense environment for locals who oppose the junta as well as many foreigners and journalists.
In a statement Sunday, the board of directors for the Press House, an independent Nigerien organisation that protects journalists, said local and international media were being threatened, and intimidated by Nigerien activists who support the junta and it was deeply concerned about the “very difficult climate” they were operating in.
Since the coup, jihadi violence is also rising. Niger was seen by Western nations as one of the last democratic countries in the Sahel region it could partner with to beat back growing jihadi violence linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
France and the United States, and other European countries have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up Niger’s military. Since the coup, France and the United States have suspended military operations.
On Sunday, Nigerien security forces were ambushed by fighters believed to be with the Islamic State group, who attacked them on a dozen motorcycles, according to a security report for aid groups seen by AP.
This, combined with another attack last week claimed by the al-Qaida linked group known as JNIM, signify a new phase of the conflict where groups are trying to consolidate power, and it’s largely a consequence of the suspended military operations, said Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Centre, told The Associated Press.
“This is due to the halting of cooperation and the military being busy consolidating their coup in Niamey,” he said. It’s also a result of cutting communication and dialogue attempts with some jihadi groups, which had been established under Bazoum, he said.
A former jihadi, Boubacar Moussa, told the AP that since the coup he’s received multiple phone calls from active jihadis saying they have been celebrating the chaos and greater freedom of movement.
Moussa is part of a nationwide programme that encourages jihadi fighters to defect and reintegrate into society, however, it’s unclear if that programme will continue under the military regime. As the situation evolves, he believes jihadis will take advantage of the security gap and launch new attacks.
The Foundation for Security Development in Africa (FOSDA) has emphasised the importance of prioritising the safety and security of citizens in Niger in any actions planned by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
This stance comes following ECOWAS decisions made during its meeting in Abuja, where it endorsed the deployment of a standby force to Niger as part of its measures.
However, Rhissa Ag Boula, a former Tuareg insurgent who has now become the tourism minister in Niger, mentioned that his newly established political party intends to work towards reinstating ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
Theodora W. Anti, the Executive Director of FOSDA, commented on these developments, underscoring that maintaining peace and security for the people of Niger should be of the utmost importance.
“For FOSDA, the peace of the Country and the sub-region and the safety of citizens should be the guiding forces for all of ECOWAS’s intervention,” Madam Anti stated in a tweet.
The Extraordinary Summit was convened as a continuation of the recent one held on July 30, 2023, in response to what ECOWAS has termed the unlawful confinement of President Mohamed BAZOUM by the Presidential Guard members in the Republic of Niger on July 26, 2023.
Following the meeting held in Abuja, Nigeria, on August 10, 2023, a communiqué was issued by ECOWAS. In the communiqué, ECOWAS once again strongly condemns the attempted coup d’état and the ongoing unauthorised detention of President Mohammed Bazoam, his family, and his government members.
Furthermore, the Authority cautioned member states against taking any actions that could impede the ongoing process.
“Warn member states who, by their action, directly or indirectly, hindered the peaceful resolution of the crisis inNiger about the consequences of their action before the community.
“Uphold all measures and principles agreed upon by the extraordinary Summit held in Niger on July 30, 2023.”
Amidst the coup in Niger that has disrupted the supply chain, onion vendors in Ghana have issued a warning about potential price hikes for the commodity.
Truckloads of onions found themselves detained at Ghana’s northern border due to the ongoing military takeover inNiger, which has prompted ECOWAS sanctions on the nation.
The drivers responsible for transporting these onions encountered days of being marooned at the border due to the enforced closure of both land and air boundaries connecting ECOWAS countries and Niger.
Speaking on the matter, Sani Abubakar, the head of the Accra Onion Importer Association, stressed that the cost of onions is likely to experience an upward surge, possibly leading to a scarcity.
During an interview with TV3’s Enyonam Haliga, he elaborated further on this potential predicament.
“For now, we are at a loss, we have a lot of trucks stuck at the border. Some are at the Mali border, Burkina Faso, and Benin so we are appealing to the government to intervene. If care is not taken we are going to sell one bag of onion at 3000 cedis.”
At present, a bag of onions is being sold within the price range of ¢1300 to ¢25,000, marking a significant increase from the previous price of ¢1000 cedis.
In response to this scenario, Dr. Charles Nyaaba, the Executive Director of the Peasant Farmers Association of Ghana, highlighted that the ongoing political instability in Niger is poised to have a pronounced impact on the supply of onions and various other commodities to Ghana.
Dr. Nyaaba further emphasized that this situation in Niger will inevitably affect the availability of livestock in Ghana.
During an appearance on the Ghana Tonight show on TV3 on Tuesday, August 8, he stated, “In recent times, we source a substantial portion of our food commodities from neighboring countries. This encompasses various types of vegetables such as tomatoes, pepper, and onions, which come from Burkina Faso and sometimes Togo. The supply of onions is specifically reliant on Niger. Similarly, when considering livestock like cattle, goats, and sheep, our sources are also concentrated in these same regions.”
“So obviously this is going to have a serious impact on the supply of those commodities in our market.”
Mr. Nyaaba further mentioned that although Ghanaian farmers are manufacturing these goods, the domestic output is insufficient to meet market demand, which is why bordering nations are needed.
He said “In Ghana, it is not the case that we don’t have the potential to produce the same. When you take onions, which we are getting 100 percent from Niger, we also get seeds from Niger.
“…When there is no water, you can’t produce onions. So if you look at the farmers who produce onions, most of them are from the White Volta basin around Bawku, Zebilla, Bolgatanga, they produce the bulk of the onions, but is still highly insignificant to meet our consumption.”
Ghanaian onion sellers are facing the prospect of a supply crunch and a price hike as a result of the border restrictions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Niger following a coup d’état last week.
The coup, which ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and put Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane in charge of a military junta, has triggered international condemnation and sanctions from ECOWAS, which include closing land and air borders, suspending commercial and financial transactions, and instituting a no-fly zone.
Niger is a major source of onions for Ghana, accounting for about 70 per cent of its imports. The other suppliers are Nigeria (20 per cent), Burkina Faso (five per cent), and local production (five per cent).
Mr Ali Umar, Public Relations Officer of the Onion Sellers Association of Ghana, told the Ghana News Agency that the border closure would have a negative impact on their business.
“If Niger’s borders remain closed for long, it will really affect our onion business. It will lead to hikes in prices,” he said.
He added that onion was a perishable commodity and that he hoped there would be some exemptions for it to be imported into Ghana amid the restrictions.
Niger is a major source of onions for Ghana
He said that in previous instances of border closures, especially in Burkina Faso, some commodities, especially onions, were allowed to move across.
He also said that Ghana was the largest exporter of salt to Niger and that the border closure would affect that trade as well.
“The countries should be able to negotiate so that foodstuffs can be distributed between Niger and the rest of the West African sub-region because people will need to eat to survive. If there is no movement of goods, there is going to be hardship,” he said.
Mr Emmanuel Doni-Kwame, Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Ghana, said the border closure meant that other producers of onions would have to increase their output to fill the gap.
He said it was an opportunity for Ghana to boost its local production of onions and reduce its dependence on imports, and that if the gap was not filled, it would result in increased prices for consumers.
He expressed concern about the political situation in Niger and its implications for regional stability and security.
“The most important thing is to make sure there is enough security, there is respect for rule of law and human rights, and to make sure the economic system is not disrupted,” he said.
Niger is a key ally of the West in the fight against Islamist militancy in West Africa. It faces two insurgencies from groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State in its south-eastern and south-western regions.
President Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021, is a close friend of France and other Western nations.
He has received support from the United States, the United Nations, the African Union, and the European Union.
However, some of Niger’s neighbours, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, which have also experienced coups in recent years, have defended the coup in Niger and even hinted at war.
They have also aligned themselves with Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military contractor that has been accused of human rights violations.
Niger has experienced four coups since independence from France in 1960. The latest coup attempt comes two days before Bazoum’s inauguration. His whereabouts are unclear, but he has tweeted that he is well and that his supporters will safeguard democracy.
The recent coup in Niger has sent shockwaves throughout West Africa, raising concerns about the stability of neighbouring countries.
In light of this development, security expert Vladimir Antwi-Danso has issued a stark warning about the potential implications for Ghana.
Speaking to Joy News’ Benjamin Akakpo on the AM Show, Antwi-Danso highlighted the need for vigilance and urged Ghana not to underestimate the risk of similar upheavals.
He expressed that the level of indiscipline and lack of human security within the country could make it susceptible to internal unrest and called for a collective effort to safeguard democratic principles and stability in the region.
This he explained is because, West African countries, to a large extent, share similar characteristics that make them vulnerable to political unrest.
He emphasized that “regime security” should be a thing of the past, and governments must prioritize “human security” to ensure collective progress. However, he expressed concern that many governments within the sub-region focus more on electoral politics and global norms of democracy, rather than genuinely upholding the rule of law.
“The point is that we have similar specificities within the West African sub Region. Regime security should have been a thing of the past, and human security assures the people of a collective way of moving forward. Unfortunately, government upon government within the sub Region are thinking about the next election, satisfying global norms that there is democracy – frequent elections, institutions of state etc. Rule of law. But then there is no rule of law,” he said.
Antwi-Danso cited Senegal as a concerning example, where underlying issues of unemployment and social unrest are simmering beneath the surface.
He pointed out that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should be vigilant and proactive in addressing such challenges before they escalate into larger crises.
He warned against waiting for military intervention as a signal of trouble, indicating that systemic coups, driven by a need to avert implosion, could become more prevalent.
“It is only when the soldiers come in that we believe that something odd has happened. Look at what is happening in Senegal. What is ECOWAS waiting for before they trigger of the Panel of the wise to be able to at least, cool things down. And they have a problem with Casamance already. And then the population, a lot of them, it is about 18-20 percent unemployment rate in Senegal, and yet what is happening is so bad.
And when it goes so bad what happens is what I talk about as Systemic Coup. The military will just see that let us intervene before there is an implosion. So I will not be surprised that in future, you will see something like that in Senegal also,” he explained.
Ghana’s vulnerabilities
While Ghana has long been regarded as a beacon of democracy in the region, Antwi-Danso cautioned against complacency.
He believes that the country faces its own set of vulnerabilities, citing a high level of indiscipline and a lack of human security as major sources of concern.
Both of these factors, he believes, could contribute to potential explosions of unrest in the country as is already evident in the series of protests that has transpired over the years.
“With Ghana, we should be very careful. Let’s not play the ostrich that everybody sees Ghana as a serious Democratic country. The level of indiscipline in the country, the lack of human security is such that when there is anything untoward, we will see some explosion in Ghana,” he noted.
Antwi-Danso urged Ghanaian authorities and regional bodies to address the root causes of potential instability, promote human security, and prioritize the well-being of citizens.
The West African sub-region as a whole, also needs to recognize and address all security risks that service as ingredients for internal conflicts, to ensure lasting peace and stability, he added.
In other ways
Security
The coup could worsen the threat of terrorism and instability in the region, as Niger is a key partner of Ghana and other countries in fighting jihadist groups.
The UN envoy for West Africa, Léonardo Santos Simão, briefing journalists at UN Headquarters in New York following the coup, has warned that the Niger crisis could escalate terrorism throughout West Africa if not addressed quickly.
Economy
The coup in Niger could also have negative economic consequences for Ghana and other West African countries. Niger is a landlocked country that depends on its neighbours for trade and transit. ECOWAS has suspended all commercial and financial transactions between Niger and its 15 member states, as well as frozen the country’s assets in its central banks.
The coup could disrupt trade and commerce between Ghana and Niger, especially for goods such as onions, which Ghana imports from Niger.
For example, some onion sellers in Ghana are worried about possible shortages and price increase due to the ECOWAS border restrictions on Niger following the coup.
Niger is one of the main suppliers of onions to Ghana, as well as other countries such as Nigeria, Benin, and Togo.
The coup could also affect foreign investment and aid to Niger, which could have spillover effects on its neighbours.
According to the World Bank, Niger received US$1.4 billion in net official development assistance in 2019, equivalent to 13.4 per cent of its GDP. Any disruption or reduction of this assistance could worsen the humanitarian situation in Niger and affect its ability to provide basic services to its population, which could cause a refugee crisis.
Diplomacy
The coup in Niger could also pose diplomatic challenges for Ghana and other West African countries. Ghana is one of the leading democracies in the region, having successfully conducted eight peaceful elections since 1992.
It is also a strong advocate of regional integration and cooperation through Ecowas. Ghana has condemned the coup in Niger and called for the immediate release and reinstatement of President Bazoum.
However, Ghana could face pressure from other actors, such as France, the UN, or the AU, to take a more active role in resolving the crisis or supporting sanctions against Niger. Ghana could also face difficulties in balancing its relations with other West African countries that have different views or interests on the coup.
For instance, Ghana has close ties with Burkina Faso and Mali, which are both led by military juntas after recent coups. Ghana could be seen as siding with either the pro-democracy or pro-military camp in West Africa, depending on its actions or statements on the Niger coup.
The Niger coup could have significant impacts on Ghana’s political stability, economic development, and diplomatic relations. The situation requires careful monitoring and engagement from Ghana and other West African countries to prevent further deterioration or escalation of violence or instability.
