Tag: Andrew Bailey

  • Jacob Rees-Mogg expresses ‘confidence’ in Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey but disputes pension funds ‘at risk’

    The question of whether the Bank of England was correct to indicate the end of its market intervention was repeatedly avoided by the business secretary.

    Although he stated his support for the Bank of England governor, Jacob Rees-Mogg challenged the idea that pension funds face “systemic” risk.

    Speaking to Sky News, the business secretary said “of course” he has confidence in Andrew Bailey, describing him as “respected”.

    He questioned, however, whether there was a “systemic problem” with pensions after the Bank of England expanded its market intervention to help pension funds for the second time in two days on Tuesday by buying up index-linked gilts.

    The Bank had warned of a “material risk to UK financial stability” with “fire sales” of assets if it did not act.

    He told Sky News that the “rightly independent” Bank intervened to protect these “risky investments”.

    The Bank confirmed yesterday that its emergency support operation to protect pension funds would end this week.

    Mr Rees-Mogg repeatedly refused to be drawn on whether the Bank was right to signal an end to its market intervention.

    “I’m not going to criticise the Bank of England or the governor,” he said. “It is not for me to speculate on what the Bank of England is doing.”

    He also insisted to Kay Burley that parts of the economy were in a “good state” as he admitted that after the economic turmoil of recent weeks his own mortgage payments have gone up.

    “Mortgage rates have gone up for everyone who has a mortgage, and I have a mortgage,” he said.

    “Any floating rate mortgages have gone up.”

    Earlier this morning, new Office for National Statistics figures indicated that the economy shrank by 0.3% between July and August, a fall from downwardly revised growth of 0.1% the previous month.

    Mr Rees-Mogg urged caution in interpreting them.

    “The previous quarter’s figure showed a contraction [and] was then revised to show economic growth. So, be very careful about how you interpret figures immediately after they’re released,” he told Sky News.

    “It’s a small amount of a very large economy, but these figures are notorious for being revised afterward.”

    The business secretary also refused to indicate his own view on whether benefits should rise in line with inflation, an issue that has split the Conservative Party.

    “We haven’t yet had the inflation figure on which benefits will be set. So, that is something that will be decided once the figure is available,” he said.

    “Most predictions, most economic forecasts, turn out to be inaccurate rather than spot on. So, one has got to be careful about forecasts.”

    Are we set for another era of austerity?

    ‘Routine decision-making’

    Mr Rees-Mogg said the decision on benefits would be made once inflation figures come out.

    “There is a process for making this decision,” he said.

    “The statutory instrument has to be laid in November to put through the increase. That will be done in the normal way. This is completely routine governmental decision-making.”

    In the Commons on Tuesday Julian Smith, a former cabinet minister, warned Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, that the government must not balance tax cuts “on the back of the poorest people in our country”.

    The government has already been forced to abandon plans to scrap the top 45p rate of tax in the face of a threatened revolt.

    Liz Truss, the prime minister, will face MPs in the Commons on Wednesday for the first time since Mr Kwarteng’s £43bn tax-cutting mini-budget caused economic turmoil.

    On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that Mr Kwarteng’s package of unfunded tax cuts was making it harder for the Bank to get soaring inflation rates under control.

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned the chancellor he will have to find £60bn in public spending cuts if he persists with his tax plans.

     

  • Pound suffers as Bank of England governor rules out extension to bond-buying aid for pension funds

    The Bank of England’s governor has ruled out extending its bond-buying support for pension funds beyond Friday’s deadline, prompting a dramatic fall in the value of the pound.

    Andrew Bailey told an event in Washington that funds had “three days left… to get this done” after a series of interventions to support the “dysfunctional” market in the wake of the wider meltdown over the government’s mini-budget.

    The latest action, on Tuesday, saw the Bank snap up index-linked gilts, government bonds with interest payments in line with inflation.

    They are heavily used by pension funds.

    The Bank had already been buying up long-dated gilts – a type of government bond that make up a large proportion of pension pots – to steady market jitters.

    They saw yields – the rate demanded to hold government debt – shoot up as pension schemes tried to raise hundreds of billions through firesales of government and corporate bonds to meet cash calls – the latest coming from providers of so-called liability-driven investment strategies.

    They are demanding funds put up more money to support new and older hedging positions.

    Mr Bailey told an event organised by the Institute of International Finance that the intervention must be temporary.

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    Are we set for another era of austerity?

    “We have announced that we will be out by the end of this week. We think the rebalancing must be done.

    “And my message to the funds involved and all the firms involved managing those funds: You’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done.”

    Industry body the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association had earlier urged the Bank to extend the bond-buying programme until 31 October – the new date for the publication of the government’s debt plan – at least.

    Mr Bailey’s clear stance on the issue saw the pound, which had been trading higher on the day versus the dollar earlier, sink by more than one and a half cents to below $1.10.

    What on earth is happening in UK markets?

    This is starting to look a little… unnerving.

    The government bond market is – in the UK and elsewhere – best thought of as the bedrock of the financial system.

    The government borrows lots of money each year at very long durations and these bonds are bought by all sorts of investors to secure a low but (usually) reliable income over a long period of time.

    Compared to other sorts of assets – such as the shares issued by companies or for that matter cryptocurrencies – government bonds are boring. Or at least, they’re supposed to be boring.

    They don’t move all that much each day and the yield they offer – the interest rate implied by their prices – is typically much lower than most other asset classes.

    But recently the UK bond market (we call them gilts as a matter of tradition, short for gilt-edged securities, because in their earliest embodiment they were pieces of paper with golden edges) has been anything but boring.

    On Monday the Bank announced a potential doubling of the amount it was willing to spend every day on long-dated gilts.

    Gilt yields, the interest rate payable on government bonds, rose on Monday, near the 5% highs of 27 September, the day before the Bank made its first intervention.

    They fell when news of the latest operation was announced but long-dated yields later rose higher again.

    That took place when the Bank revealed it had bought £1.947bn of index-linked bonds on Tuesday, adding that it had rejected £466.9m of offers to sell to the central bank.

    It also bought up £1.363bn in long-dated bonds – also well below the £5bn possible.

    The yield on 30-year bonds rose back to 4.8% for a short time, having been down at 4.4% around lunchtime.

    The benchmark 10-year yield remained around the 4.4% level.

    “Things seemed calmer again today,” Mr Bailey told the event.

    “We will see,” he added.

    The Bank announced on 28 September a temporary and emergency buying programme of long-dated gilts that are to be repaid in 20 to 30 years time, in the wake of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget announcement.

    Bond buying period due to end on Friday

    Market turmoil that stemmed from the mini-budget led to the unprecedented intervention from the regulator to prevent part of the pension market collapsing as the cost of interest on gilts surged.

    Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said of the scheme’s expansion before Mr Bailey’s remarks: “The Bank of England hopes to avoid a crisis in the market by being a willing buyer of bonds from pension funds who are under pressure.

    “These pension funds will welcome today’s move, but whether the broader market shares the same enthusiasm remains to be seen.

    “The key sticking point is that the support measures are only scheduled to last until Friday.

    “Will that be long enough, or will the Bank of England extend the support scheme? Extending it could go one of two ways – the market either applauds the move and breathes a sigh of relief or it gets even more worried, thinking that the extra time suggests the crisis is more severe than originally thought.”

    Source: SkyNews.com

  • Liz Truss had to be convinced to issue statement amid market turmoil after mini-budget

    The prime minister’s initial instinct had been to stand firm and say little or nothing while faced with market turmoil, spiking borrowing costs, and the drop in the value of the pound in foreign exchange markets.

    However, after a meeting with Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng yesterday, Ms Truss agreed the Treasury would issue a statement promising further details on 23 November on how the government would ensure borrowing would not spiral out of control.

    In effect, this gives the government eight weeks to come up with a plan to stabilise the markets – likely to involve spending cuts in Whitehall, public services, investment, and probably welfare.

    The government will reject claims circulating in Whitehall that the meeting between Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng was “argumentative” and descended into a “shouting match”.

    This comes as the chancellor plans to hold further emergency meetings with global bankers this week to discourage them from speculating on the pound.

    There is deep concern in the City that Treasury ministers are still gunning for Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, and his two most senior lieutenants, with some believing that removing this team from office would dent Britain’s global reputation for stability.

    Sky News can confirm that Monday’s meeting between the chancellor and prime minister concentrated on whether to issue a statement and what to say, with the two sides initially taking different positions.

    One source said that the chancellor was more sympathetic to the Bank’s concerns than the PM.

    The prime minister’s team was aware that the Bank of England was going to issue a statement after the close of markets on Monday.

    In the end, the Treasury issued an almost simultaneous statement promising to release economic forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility and a plan on debt on 23 November.

    Source: Skynews