It’s easy to imagine Vladimir Putin as a bad guy from a James Bond movie. Like sitting at a big control panel in a hidden mountain place, causing trouble all over the world.
He pushes a button and there is trouble in the Balkans.
When he pushes the button, a powerful explosion happens in the Middle East.
It might seem attractive, but it’s likely not correct. It makes the leader of the Kremlin seem more powerful around the world than they actually are.
Russia is connected to Hamas and has become a strong friend of Iran. The US says that Moscow and Teheran are now working together defensively.
However, this does not mean that Moscow was directly involved in or knew beforehand about the Hamas attack on Israel.
Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia and the Middle East, based in Berlin at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, says that she has not seen any proof of Russia directly giving weapons to Hamas or training members of Hamas in military tactics.
Russia and Hamas have been connected for a long time. Russia has never officially announced that they consider Hamas to be a terrorist organization. Hamas teams went to Moscow both last year and this year.
But I wouldn’t assume from that information that there has been a lot of military help. Despite knowing that Russian-made systems have entered the Gaza strip, most likely through the Sinai area in Egypt and with help from Iran.
Basically, President Putin did not start a war in the Middle East by pressing a specific button.
But is he prepared to make use of the opportunity.
DefinitelyAnd this is how it’s done.
Loss of focus from Ukraine
With the increase in violence in the Middle East being the main focus of international news, Moscow is hoping that attention will be shifted to dramatic headlines from Israel instead of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But this is about more than just shifting the focus of news for a short period of time. The Russian government wants Western countries to send fewer weapons to Ukraine and instead, send them to Israel due to their interests in the situation in the Middle East.
“I think this crisis will directly affect the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,” stated Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov in an interview with the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper.
The conflict in Israel will cause Ukraine’s supporters to lose focus. This doesn’t mean that the West will stop supporting Ukrainians. However, the amount of assistance from the military will decrease, and Russia could gain an advantage in the operation.
Is it possible that Russia is being overly optimistic in their thoughts.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the United States will support and be there for both Israel and Ukraine.
However, if there is a long-lasting conflict in the Middle East, it will be a challenge for America to provide support to two different allies involved in two separate wars at the same time.
Can Russia help solve the problem.
Russia wants to increase its importance in the Middle East by presenting itself as someone who can help bring peace.
It has done this job in the past, by participating in previous global attempts to stop the fighting in the area.
“Russia is able and will take part in finding a solution to the conflict,” stated Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for President Putin. “We are keeping in touch with both parties involved in the dispute. ”
During his visit to Moscow this week, Iraq’s prime minister asked President Putin to propose a plan for a genuine peace agreement in the area.
Can we really believe that Russia is a peacemaker. It’s difficult to convince people of that.
This is the country that attacked its neighbor with a large military force. For almost 20 months, the war that Russia has been fighting in Ukraine has resulted in a large number of deaths and a lot of damage to the country. This has surprised people all around the globe.
Additionally, just because you claim that you are able and willing to help achieve peace, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the people who are in the conflict will agree to have you as a mediator.
Moscow has always been interested in the Middle East. During the time when Israel and the US became close, the Soviet Union supported the Arab countries in the region. For many years, the Soviet Union promoted hatred towards Jewish people.
After the Soviet empire was no more, Russia’s relationship with Israel got better. This happened partly because over a million Jews from the countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union moved to Israel.
Recently, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has become closer to Israel’s enemies, especially Iran. This has caused tension in Russian-Israeli relations.
Criticizing America
The Kremlin sees a chance to do what it often does – blaming America.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin has been saying that it shows the United States’ policy in the Middle East has failed.
It follows the usual pattern of Moscow criticizing what it sees as American dominance.
The Kremlin is trying to make Russia look better in the Middle East by blaming America, which hurts the reputation of the United States.
I have already discussed how Russia could gain advantages from what is happening in the Middle East. But also, there are things that can harm you.
Hanna Notte believes that Russia benefits from carefully planned and controlled instability.
“If this crisis takes away focus from Ukraine, which may happen because Israel is significant in the US domestic politics, then Russia might benefit temporarily. ”
Russia does not want a war that involves the wider area, including Iran, because Iran supports Hamas with weapons and money, according to Ms.
Russia does not want a big war to happen between Israel and Iran. If things go in that direction and it becomes clear that America strongly supports Israel, I believe Russia will have no option but to align more with Iran. I don’t think it wants to.
I believe Putin still values his connections with Israel. I believe that Russian diplomacy does not want to enter a situation where they have to choose one side over the other. But as this conflict gets worse, they might start to feel more stressed.