The Director of the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) says ECOWAS’ military intervention in Niger will not happen.
Professor Kwesi Aning’s stance still holds despite heads of forces of some member states after a meeting in Accra announced their readiness to strike.
According to him, the intervention will not happen because the bloc itself is facing credibility challenges and, therefore, would need to reverse its steps to regain “parts of its credibility.”
“Let me repeat it; the attack will not happen. You know yourself the number of times I’ve predicted coup d’états that have come through. So this is about forecasting and risk analysis and risk assessment.
“The intervention will not happen because ECOWAS needs to reverse or retract its steps to get parts of its credibility back,” he told Newsfile host, Samson Lardy Anyenini.
The expert indicated that the military regime in Niger started signalling their willingness to negotiate but “because of the tendency that our elders don’t make mistakes and they don’t apologise,” ECOWAS seems to be having difficulty reversing its decision.
In the midst of these developments, reports indicate that the media in Niger is abuzz with discussions regarding the possibility of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Senegal providing ammunition support to Niger in response to the anticipated military intervention by ECOWAS.
Professor Aning believes this response is a prudent one, considering ECOWAS’ announcement of its intent to carry out an intervention. He emphasized that when there’s a perceived threat of attack, it’s natural to make preparations.
Following a one-week ultimatum issued to the leaders of the Niger coup to restore constitutional rule, commanders from various ECOWAS member states gathered in Accra to deliberate on their intervention plan. Notably, Mali, Senegal, and Burkina Faso did not attend the meeting, as they expressed support for Niger and criticized ECOWAS’ approach.
Experts have also voiced their concerns about ECOWAS’ approach, asserting that the regional bloc should have exhausted all available diplomatic options before resorting to a military intervention, which was meant to be a last resort.
As per the announcement by the commanders after their Accra meeting, there are no plans for further discussions before a potential military strike in Niger.