The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMeT) has issued a warning that this year’s September to November rainfall distribution could result in increased localized flooding in low-lying regions of Accra and Kumasi.
The agency also expressed concerns about the likelihood of heavy flooding in the northern region due to the expected high rainfall and the possibility of the Bagre Dam in Burkina Faso spilling over.
These warnings were detailed in this year’s September-October-November (SON) forecast, which was provided to the Daily Graphic.
Francisca Martey, Deputy Director and Head of Research and Applied Meteorology at GMeT, noted that the current rainfall pattern outlined in the forecast was not unusual.
According to the agency, this year’s SON rainfall is projected to be above normal for most regions in Ghana, except for specific areas in the southwestern parts, such as Asankragwa in the Western Region, and transitional zones like Kintampo and the surrounding rainforest regions to the north, where rainfall is expected to be normal.
The majority of the rainfall is anticipated to be in the form of light to moderate rain spread over several hours, with occasional heavy downpours.
The northern part of the country is also expected to experience above-normal rainfall during SON. At the peak of the season, there is a high probability of heavy rain accompanied by strong winds and lightning, potentially leading to localized floods, especially in low-lying areas of Accra and Kumasi in October.
To prepare for the rainy season, the agency has advised authorities in the disaster management sector to establish and activate integrated monitoring and early warning systems for flood risk.
Collaboration between agencies responsible for flood monitoring, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian aid should also be enhanced. Additionally, residents in flood-prone areas are urged to consider relocating.
In areas with heavy rainfall, the risk of waterborne diseases like cholera, malaria, dengue fever, bilharzia, and diarrhea increases.
To mitigate this, the agency recommends intensifying public education on disaster risk reduction through national media and information vans. Collaboration between meteorological, hydrological, and disaster management organizations should also be strengthened.
For agriculture, especially in eastern coastal areas, the agency advises farmers to focus on short maturation crops due to the shorter rainy season. Farmers are encouraged to invest in improved seed varieties and yield enhancement techniques for both food and cash crops.
Diversifying income-generating activities and adopting farming practices like no-tillage, mulching, market gardening, and agroforestry are also recommended to offset potential production deficits caused by dry spells at the end of the season.
Farmers should also plan to protect their harvest from rain-related post-harvest losses.
Regarding climate change, Prof. Kwadwo Owusu, Director of the Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies at the University of Ghana, stated that while climate change does impact rainfall patterns, the current situation is considered normal.
He emphasized that experiencing more rains from August to October is within the normal range, and there is no cause for alarm.
In a broader context, experts warn that changes in rainfall patterns due to global warming can have significant implications for agriculture, potentially leading to food insecurity, especially in developing countries reliant on seasonal rainfall.
These changes could also worsen issues like floods, droughts, and famines, further underscoring the importance of addressing climate change.