The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting that Ghana will achieve single-digit inflation by the end of 2025, with an end-of-year inflation rate of 8 percent.
The IMF’s Economic Outlook Report also forecasts an end-of-year inflation rate of 15 percent for 2024, which is consistent with the Bank of Ghana’s inflation projection for the same year, according to a JoyBusiness report.
The projection is based on the measures implemented by the government under the IMF program and the Bank of Ghana’s commitment to maintaining tight monetary measures to address inflation pressures.
However, there have been no official reasons provided by the IMF for this projection.
The Bank of Ghana has set an inflation target of 15 percent “Plus 2 or Minus two” for 2024, meaning inflation could range from 13 percent to 17 percent by the end of the year.
However, there are concerns about whether the government will meet its 15 percent target as projected in the 2024 Budget, especially with recent increases in the prices of petroleum products and the potential hike in transport fares.
Despite these concerns, Bank of Ghana Governor Dr. Ernest Addison expects inflation to decrease in the coming months, stating that the Bank has no intention of revising its end-of-year target.
Ghana last recorded single-digit inflation in July 2021. If the IMF’s projection is accurate, Ghana could return to single-digit inflation by the end of 2025.
Before April 2020, inflation had remained stable at 7.8 percent for three months. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a spike in inflation, reaching 10.6 percent in April before declining to 9.8 percent in November 2020.
As of March 2024, Ghana’s inflation stood at 25.8 percent, compared to 45.0 percent in March 2023.