The April 2024 Commodity Outlook Report from the World Bank has recently been published, indicating a significant decline in global food prices for 2024, with an anticipated decrease of 6 percent, followed by an additional 4 percent drop in 2025.
This decline primarily stems from reduced prices for grains, oils, and meals, while other food items are predicted to experience price increases in 2024. However, 2025 is expected to bring widespread decreases in food prices.
The grains price index is projected to decrease by 11 percent in 2024, driven by ample global grain supplies. Specifically, wheat prices are forecasted to fall by 15 percent in 2024 due to increased production, with an additional 2 percent decline in 2025.
These forecasts occur in the context of intense export competition, slightly higher production, offset by somewhat increased consumption, and the lowest end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio in eight years.
Global maize production is expected to reach a record high in the 2023–24 seasons, while global rice production remains steady in 2023-24, resulting in the stock-to-use ratio dropping to its lowest level in three years.
Due to constrained global markets and export restrictions imposed by India, rice prices are anticipated to increase by 8 percent (year-on-year) in 2024.
In Ghana, there is a noticeable reversal in food disinflation as evidenced by the food inflation rate, which surged from 27.0 percent in February to 29.6 percent in March 2024.
This uptick in food inflation coincides with ongoing concerns regarding food insecurity in the sub-Saharan region. With global food prices expected to decrease, it remains uncertain how these changes will affect Ghana’s food market and the overall food security situation in the country.