In the event of Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s demise in a plane crash, the Wagner Group could potentially continue operating under a leadership team that is not clearly defined.
According to an intelligence analyst, other important people might join the efforts of the Kremlin to bring the formation under its control.
The large size of the group’s violent operations in the Middle East and Africa might make it hard to fully control or stop the group.
Vladimir Putin seems to have gotten back at Prigozhin after the leader’s personal plane crashed near the city of Tver, north of Moscow, on Wednesday night. Sadly, everyone on the plane died in the accident.
The leader of the hired soldiers seemed to have died two months after his private army, which the US considered a criminal group that operates across multiple countries, failed in a planned attack on the capital. The leader of Russia called the group’s disobedience a “rebellion” and a “betrayal”.
The situation leading up to the rebellion involved the Russian government’s efforts to bring private military contractors (PMCs) under the control of the regular military. This required the PMCs to transfer their authority, a process that is believed to be ongoing.
Alec Bertina, who works as an analyst at the Grey Dynamics private intelligence firm, believes that even though Wagner has lost some important leaders or influence, it still exists and operates in different regions like Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.
“He said that there are other important leaders from the Wagner Group who are still alive, or at least their death has not been confirmed. ”
We are discussing senior commander Andrei Troshev and people with nicknames like Ratibor, Zombie, and Lotus.
I think that even though a big part of Wagner is gone, there are still enough things left to keep the organization running.
It is believed that Prigozhin’s company airplane, with two other people on board, exploded near Tver, which is halfway between Moscow and St Petersburg.
Other Russian private military companies (PMCs), similar to Wagner, who have been responsible for committing atrocities and potentially war crimes, may take advantage of Putin’s catastrophic full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But older members of the Wagnernites group can still have an impact, and this includes skilled individuals like Lotus, who was a commander in the Russian army named Anton Yelizarov. Another person is Alexander Kuznetsov, also known as Ratibor, who used to be in a special military group and received honors for it. However, he was also sent to jail in the past for committing the crimes of kidnapping and robbery.
‘Bertina said that in the future, there may be other groups without government backing who want to fight for a portion of Wagner’s resources. ’ However, none of them are as skilled as Wagner and it will take a long time for them to reach his level. It’s not only about giving money to other groups to help them grow. It’s also about having experience and knowledge, which takes time to acquire.
Right now, it looks like the Wagner circles are not getting too worked up and are waiting to hear what the commanders have to say.
‘They might say that they want to ensure that the Kremlin doesn’t escape punishment, or, more likely, that it’s a fight not worth engaging in. ‘
‘They had a good chance to remove Putin from power when they were about to go towards Moscow, and I think Putin was more prepared than some people thought. ’
The most recent picture of Prigozhin shows him by himself, carrying a type of gun used for attacking, in a dry and sandy place, possibly in Africa.
The group has made its presence known in Libya, Mali, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, as well as the Middle East and Europe.
Ivan Aleksandrovitch Maslov, who is claimed to have presided over a slaughter in Mali, is among a number of relatively low-profile people who appear on a list of sanctioned Wagnerites that the UK published this month.
“The signing-over process of fighters to the MoD [Ministry of Defence] was already underway, but it was having problems transferring a sizable number of people,” said Bertina.
It has been challenging to recruit those folks because the majority of Wagner’s members left the MoD because they were dissatisfied with it.
Dmitry Valeryevich Utkin, the Wagner leader, is one of the facilitators of the organisation who has received UK sanctions.
While the Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU, started controlling Wagner’s activities in Syria, the group continued its operations in Africa even after the rebellion.
The Wagner mercenaries were saying that everything was happening normally.
There could be a possibility of things changing soon. There are two questions to consider. One is about how much they can work without help from the Ministry of Defense, and the other is about how much control the Ministry of Defense has over them.
Many people think Putin might have planned the crash. Some people believe that the plane was brought down by a bomb that was hidden in a box of wine.
The president of Russia said sorry yesterday to the families of the 10 people who died, including three crew members.
Bertina thinks that Prigozhin, who used to work for Putin and is now known as his former chef, was able to travel easily to other countries after behaving defiantly because the Kremlin’s powerful security system stayed hidden and waited for the right moment.
“He said that the Russian government and security services might have spent two months preparing to remove the leaders of the Wagner group and fooled Prigozhin into feeling safe. ” This could mean handling the consequences of getting rid of him and making backup plans.
Bertina says that information from Prigozhin’s social media accounts might suggest that the Kremlin is behind the attack.
He said that the accounts created by Wagner’s troll factories have become useful for the Russian government since Prigozhin’s death, which means they may have been taken control of by someone else. ‘They are accusing the Western countries of being responsible for the murder. This accusation started right after Prigozhin died, implying that the murder might have been premeditated. ‘
Emily Ferris, from the Royal United Services Institute, believes that Africa is an important place for the mercenaries group after Prigozhin’s supposed murder.
The Research Fellow said ‘If this is true, it is a setback for Wagner’s top leaders and has the biggest impact on its activities in Africa.
The Wagner soldiers are either working with the MoD or waiting in Belarus since the rebellion. They haven’t been active for two months. The Kremlin cares a lot about the Africa branch of Wagner because it helps them with their foreign policy. They will probably try to make changes to the group and keep it going.
Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said today that the claims that the Kremlin ordered Prigozhin’s death are completely untrue.
He said that many people were guessing about the crash and he didn’t believe the Western idea that Putin caused it.
The president of Russia has stated that a complete investigation will be conducted regarding the incident, and it will be pursued until the very end.