The most recent poll by Global InfoAnalytics ahead of the December 2024 elections predicts a significant victory for John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate.
The survey indicates Mahama leading with 51.9% support, while the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), follows with 40.5%. Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen (AKK) has 2.1%, Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) garners 4.7%, and other candidates collectively secure 0.7%.
The poll, conducted between November 11th and 16th, reveals a tightening race in swing regions such as Greater Accra, Central, and Western, while the Akan and Northern regions show declining support for the ruling party just weeks before the elections.
In the swing regions, Mahama leads with 51.1%, Bawumia follows at 39.5%, Kyerematen secures 2.0%, Bediako garners 7.0%, and others hold 0.4%. In the Akan regions, Bawumia edges ahead with 46.6%, while Mahama trails at 44.5%, Kyerematen at 2.6%, Bediako at 5.6%, and others at 0.9%.
In the Northern regions, Mahama dominates with 64.7%, compared to Bawumia’s 33.9%, with Kyerematen and Bediako each securing 0.7%. In the Volta and Oti regions, Mahama secures a commanding lead of 72.7%, followed by Bawumia at 19.7%, Kyerematen at 2.2%, Bediako at 3.3%, and others at 2.2%.
The six-week polling average highlights Mahama leading in 13 regions, while Bawumia prevails in three. Notably, Mahama is reportedly gaining ground in the Ahafo and Bono regions, traditionally strongholds of the ruling party.
Among floating or independent voters, Mahama leads with 63%, followed by Bediako at 17%, Bawumia at 13%, Kyerematen at 5%, and others at 2%. First-time voters, comprising about 5% of registered voters, also favor Mahama at 48%, followed by Bawumia at 39%, Bediako at 8%, and Kyerematen at 5%.