In simple terms, it seems like the 2024 election might be similar to the 2020 election, but with Donald Trump running against President Joe Biden instead.
Many people feel frustrated that voters are always given the same options and everything seems to follow a predictable pattern. Even the surveys show that the competition is very close.
But as any historian will explain, unexpected things can occur within a year to change the course of a race. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter may have lost the election because of a situation where people were held hostage. And in 2020, a serious disease outbreak greatly changed the nation.
Let’s take a look at four unexpected things that might completely change how this election goes.
What happens if an independent candidate becomes popular.
If you are not a Republican or a Democrat, it is highly unlikely that you will become the US president. But candidates who are not affiliated with the main political parties have caused major changes in elections before, and they may do the same thing again in 2024.
In 1992, a rich businessman named Ross Perot got 19% of the votes, and many people believe that this caused the Republicans to lose the presidential election. In 2000, Ralph Nader, a candidate from the Green Party, got 97,488 votes in Florida. This helped George W Bush win the swing state. Some people believe that Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, negatively affected Hillary Clinton’s chances in the 2016 election.
This election could have a similar surprising outcome. A high-ranking American politician I spoke with this week mentioned that President Biden and Republican front-runner Donald Trump have low approval ratings. This could give a chance for other politicians to become more influential. A recent poll by Gallup also indicates the same thing.
Two people who are not affiliated with any political parties have already joined the competition. Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr are activists who used to be part of the Democratic Party but have now chosen to leave it. Before he changed, surveys showed that he had the potential to gain the backing of about 20% of people who support the Democratic Party. Now that Kennedy doesn’t belong to a political party, he could attract voters who think conspiracies are true and potentially steal votes from Trump.
This election is expected to be very close, so even a small number of votes going to a candidate from a different party can have a significant impact.
Can something happen to one of them before Election Day?
Yes, this is a common refrain: both President Biden and President Trump are elderly. Trump will be 78 years old and Biden will be 82 on Inauguration Day in 2025. Though neither of them appears to be in bad condition, what if anything did happen to them in the days leading up to the election?
If they become very ill or die before New Year’s Day 2024, there are many people on both sides who want to be chosen. However, things become more difficult as states complete their final primary ballot preparations.
If something really bad happens in the middle of October 2024, their name will still be listed on the national ballot. According to the Constitution, even if you can’t make a promise, you can still participate in a race even if you are no longer alive.
This has happened before: In the year 2000, Mel Carnahan was running to become a US Senator when he died in a plane accident while on his way to a campaign event. He was chosen for the position after he passed away, and his wife, Jean, served until a new election took place in 2002.
If the person who wins the election dies after the election, but before they start working as the president, then the vice president would take their place. After that, they would have to choose someone to take their place as Vice President – but that person would have to be accepted by Congress.
This is very difficult, so let’s wish that all candidates stay very healthy.
What happens if a war in another country gets worse.
President Biden is seeking to be re-elected but is dealing with serious problems from other countries – Russia invading Ukraine and Israel fighting against Hamas. China is putting more pressure on Taiwan’s airspace with its military, and this is dangerous.
His team has tried to use this situation for political gain, showing him as a trustworthy commander in chief. People think he has done a decent job managing the two intense wars. But there are already concerning patterns for the president’s campaign: especially a decrease in support from young Democratic voters, who are upset because Biden strongly supports Israel while the number of Palestinian casualties increases.
And if any of these wars go beyond the current borders – if Russia attacks a country that is a member of Nato, if armed groups supported by Iran join the Hamas fight against Israel – that would disrupt plans and cause chaos during the election year.
Will the US be involved or pulled into a situation from its current position where it can prevent or discourage actions.
Will all the confusion happening globally harm the chances of Donald Trump’s opponent. Or will Trump gain support from people who are tired of paying for and potentially participating in wars abroad again.
There are many things that they can’t control, especially in the Middle East. This is not a good situation for any person running for president to be in.
What would happen if Donald Trump goes to jail.
The ex-president is accused of 91 crimes and will have four separate trials next year.
The maximum possible punishment is spending many years in prison, but few legal experts believe that is probable, even if found guilty.
Trump’s lawyers have been working really hard but haven’t been able to delay the trials until after the election. They understand that if they win the election, it is unlikely that they can be punished for their actions until four years later, unless Congress decides to impeach them.
If he gets sent to jail before the election, there’s still a chance he can win.
Being a person who has been found guilty of a serious crime does not stop him from participating in a presidential election. Actually, a hundred years ago, a candidate managed to get almost one million votes while being in prison. It would definitely make campaigning difficult, but polls show that many Republican voters would not be discouraged.
If he becomes president while in prison, he might be able to forgive himself for any federal crimes, but if he is imprisoned for state crimes, he would not have the power to do the same. This means there is a strange chance of being the president while also being in prison.
We are in completely new and unknown situation, and even the smartest legal experts in the country are confused.