Fitch Solutions has upheld its 2024 growth forecast for Ghana at 4.3%.
This estimate significantly surpasses the 2.9% forecasted by the International Monetary Fund and the 3.1% revised GDP growth figure provided by the government.
The London-based firm predicts that Ghana’s economy will expand more vigorously than previously expected.
It noted that consumer spending has remained strong since the beginning of 2024, and the outlook for the extractive sector is optimistic.
Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, highlighted in the Mid-Year Review for Sub-Saharan Africa that Ghana’s economic growth will be propelled by the extractive sector, especially oil and gas, as well as by consumer spending.
“We except economic growth to remain stronger than what we have seen in the past couple of years with the economic forecasters predicting 4.3% in 2024 and 4.5% next year”.
“And obviously key reasons why we hold in more positive outlook for the Ghanaian economy are after years of decline, Ghana’s oil sector appears to be recovering. Our oil and gas team are attributing the recovery to large oil drilling companies at the Jubilee and Ten fields [oil]”, he explained.
“While inflation remained sticky in Q1 [quarter one] 2024, averaging 24.2%, we expect that it will trend downward and reach 19.5% by the end of the year, primarily facilitated by statistical base effects. Slowing inflation, combined with stronger government spending ahead of the December general elections, will support consumer activity and boost domestic demand”, it added.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions expects that fixed investment will continue to recover in 2024.