Global InfoAnalytics suggests that while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is expected to retain the Ejisu seat, victory may not be straightforward for their candidate, Kwabena Boateng.
The by-election follows the passing of Ejisu’s Member of Parliament, John Ampontuah Kumah, leading to a closely contested race between Kwabena Boateng and former MP for the area, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi.
Despite the National Democratic Congress (NDC) opting out of the race, the dynamics remain intriguing.
Executive Director and Head of Polls for Global InfoAnalytics, Musah Dankwah, revealed on Citi TV that Kwabena Owusu Aduomi, supported by the NDC, poses a significant threat to the NPP’s candidate.
The latest polling data shows Kwabena Boateng leading narrowly with 50.6% of the votes, while Kwabena Owusu Aduomi trails closely behind at 47.5%.
“The polls are shocking, indeed very shocking, currently, the NPP is leading by a whisker, less than a margin of error, 50.6% lead in the poll. They are not losing the seat but leading by a margin of error. The lead is not comfortable.
“Kwabena Owusu Aduomi 47.5%. This race is too close to call. What we have seen is that the NPP again is divided, about 64% of NPP voters are voting for their own.
“About 34% are voting for Aduomi. Aduomi is getting 66% of the support from floating voters and he’s getting 92% of NDC support, and 95% of other party supporters. The only advantage the NPP has is that they are leading amongst their own, other than that Aduomi is leading across the board.
“It would have been different if Aduomi hadn’t contested, he’s a threat. NDC guys are rallying behind Aduomi and that is proving very deadly,” he is quoted to have said.
The polls reveal a divided NPP electorate, with approximately 64% supporting their candidate, Kwabena Boateng.
Meanwhile, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi enjoys strong backing from floating voters, as well as overwhelming support from NDC loyalists and other party supporters.
The Electoral Commission has set April 30, 2024, for the by-election.