Africa’s largest oil refinery is nearing a major milestone with its imminent production of substantial volumes of gasoline, a development that could reshape the global fuel market.
The new Dangote refinery, located near Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial center, is on the verge of producing significant quantities of gasoline. According to sources familiar with the situation, the facility will have the capacity to process 650,000 barrels of oil per day at full operation, with over half of this amount converted into gasoline.
This advancement is expected to be a significant boost for Nigeria, where the state oil company—Nigeria’s primary fuel importer—has been struggling with disruptions in gasoline supply due to debt and rising costs.
Dangote’s gasoline production will influence billions of dollars in fuel trade both regionally and internationally. Last year, Nigeria imported nearly 250,000 barrels of gasoline daily, primarily from Europe, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd.
A crucial component in the refinery’s gasoline output is a unit known as a reformer, which produces blendstock for the fuel. This unit has started operating, and gasoline production is anticipated to commence by the end of the week, according to one source. Another source confirmed that gasoline would be available this week.
At peak capacity, the refinery is expected to produce around 330,000 barrels of gasoline per day, as noted by Randy Hurburun, a senior refinery analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. This would account for over 1% of global gasoline demand, which stands at approximately 27 million barrels daily.
However, achieving these production levels will take time. Energy Aspects forecasts the refinery will produce about 90,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, with output increasing to nearly 250,000 barrels daily in the latter half of next year. A critical factor in expanding production further is the installation of a residue fluid catalytic cracker.
The refinery has been gradually increasing its output after years of delays. Aliko Dangote, the plant’s owner, indicated in July that the facility was targeting a start date for gasoline production in August.