In a casual moment over ice cream with a late-night television talk show host on Monday, US President Joe Biden hinted at the possibility of a new ceasefire in the Gaza War, suggesting it could be achieved as early as the upcoming Monday.
“My national security adviser informs me that we’re nearing an agreement,” he remarked.
His remarks, later clarified by the White House, stirred reactions within the American Palestinian community.
Then, on Tuesday night in Michigan, a pivotal state in the November presidential election, over 100,000 individuals in the Democratic primary chose “uncommitted” in protest, orchestrated by pro-Palestinian groups.
“This is a signal,” noted Lexis Zeidan, one of the organizers, on Tuesday evening.
This week has underscored for Mr. Biden the electoral risks associated with the Middle East conflict and the White House’s handling of it.
Since the conflict’s onset following the October 7 attacks, the president has grappled with navigating Middle East policies that alienate segments of his support base.
Yet, the Biden administration is proceeding cautiously in terms of substantive policy shifts. Despite domestic pressures this week, the administration has largely maintained its current stance.
During a briefing on Thursday, US State Department Press Secretary Matt Miller reiterated the US’s provision of aid to Israel, supporting the nation’s “legitimate right” to self-defense and prevention of future attacks akin to October 7.
“There’s a misconception that the United States can dictate sovereign decisions to other nations,” he remarked. “Israel makes its sovereign decisions, and we make clear our areas of disagreement.”
Behind the scenes, US officials have hinted at potential delays in further arms shipments to Israel and other potential measures under consideration.
While most opinion polls indicate that the American public generally supports Israel in the conflict, there’s a notable divide within key components of President Biden’s Democratic coalition, particularly among young voters and people of color.
Navigating these domestic political dynamics is complex for the administration. They must balance various constituencies within the Democratic Party, each claiming significance to the president’s re-election prospects.
In response to the conflict, pro-Palestinian groups in the US have called for a permanent ceasefire, backing diplomatic efforts at the United Nations, and even threatening to withhold American military aid to Israel unless there’s a change in course.
Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, expresses the sentiment of many, stating that the Biden administration’s current efforts feel insufficient, describing them as “ham-fisted, half-measure statements about how we were sorry we didn’t express more sympathy and we’re working behind the scenes.”
In Michigan, the protest vote against Biden was significant, though it fell short of the margin by which he won the state in 2020. This contrasts with the narrow margin by which Democrat Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to Trump in 2016.
Mitch Landrieu, the campaign’s national co-chair, acknowledges the complexity of the situation, emphasizing the need for thorough engagement and resolution: “Every issue is complicated, and this is one of them that needs to be worked through.”
With eight months until the election, Biden campaign officials are hoping that the prospect of a binary choice between Mr Biden and Donald Trump will encourage dissenting voices in the Democrat political coalition to ultimately fall into line.
Campaign officials are already pointing to a number of controversial policies Mr Trump implemented during his presidential term, such as moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and support for Jewish settlements on the West Bank.
But with new headlines of civilian bloodshed in Gaza virtually every day, emotions are raw. This week the death toll in Gaza surpassed 30,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. And on Thursday at least 117 Palestinians were killed and hundreds were injured during an aid delivery in Gaza.
“We’re supposed to be in the position where you hurt us, you ignore us, you pay no attention to our feelings, but we’ll have to vote Democrat?” says Mr Zogby. “Why can’t you apply that same logic on the side of the Jewish community?”
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has being going to lengths to dash any White House hopes that a change in rhetoric will put more pressure on Israel to conclude the war.
“From the beginning of the war, I have been leading a diplomatic campaign whose goal is to deflect the pressure to end the war prematurely,” he said this week.
Mr Netanyahu seems finally attuned to the US domestic political situation, as well, and says the American public overwhelmingly supports his cause.
All of this suggests Mr Biden has few easy means to extricate himself from his current political predicament.
“He’s been dealt a very, very limited, difficult hand to play,” says Sragow. “If I was a member of the senior staff advising Biden, I don’t know what I would say other than just do what you think in your heart is the right thing to do.”
The pro-Palestinian groups in the US would probably echo this sentiment, except they firmly believe the president’s heart is in the wrong place – and that he is poised to pay a high political price for it come November.