Félix Tshisekedi is taking the oath for a second term as the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, amidst a tumultuous and disputed election.
With over 70% of the population living in extreme poverty and a backdrop of decades-long conflict, Tshisekedi faces the formidable task of improving the nation’s fortunes over the next five years.
The central question looms: Can President Tshisekedi usher in the long-awaited peace for DR Congo, or have heightened violence and his campaign promise to engage in conflict with neighboring Rwanda thwarted those prospects?
Throughout both of his presidential campaigns, Tshisekedi has pledged to address the unrest in eastern DR Congo, where numerous armed groups, including the notorious M23, vie for control of land and the region’s rich mineral resources, such as gold, diamonds, and cobalt essential for mobile phones and electric cars.
Despite a temporary lull in conflict last year, tensions flared again, leading to a record 6.9 million people being displaced, according to the UN.
To effectively resolve these issues, Tshisekedi must shift his focus from “short-term” military initiatives to implementing lasting solutions, emphasizes Richard Moncrieff, the Great Lakes Project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), in conversation with the BBC.
President Tshisekedi and other African leaders had started negotiations – known as the Nairobi and Luanda processes – in an attempt to ease DR Congo’s insecurity through military and political strategies. However, these talks appear to have stalled.
The Congolese president hasn’t paid keen attention to any of the peace processes, Mr Moncrieff argues, adding: “He needs to build for the long term in terms of reforming his security sector… and not place so much trust in very, very unreliable short-term solutions.”
Military initiatives taken by the president in his first term include declaring a state of siege in the provinces of Ituri and North Kivu, in 2021.
He attempted to restore order by appointing military leaders to replace the civil administration in the areas.
Additionally, the president pushed for a recruitment drive that led to thousands of young people joining the army, while launching a disarmament operation aimed at reintegrating members of armed groups into civilian life.
Critics point out that these initiatives have failed to reduce fighting in the east, even though Mr Tshisekedi insists they have borne fruit.
He told MPs in November there had been a “reduction of cross-border mining and customs fraud which fuels conflicts”, as well as an improvement in intercommunity tensions and “the reestablishment of state authority”.
The president has also said getting rid of an East African force set up to curb DR Congo’s conflict, and replacing it with a southern African one, will help to reduce insecurity.
In October 2023, DR Congo’s government said it would not extend the East Africa Community (EAC) Regional Force’s mandate after months of Kinshasa complaining about the troops’ ineffectiveness.
Last month, the Congolese foreign minister said troops from the southern African bloc SADC had been given the mandate “to support the Congolese army in fighting and eradicating the M23 and other armed groups that continue to disrupt peace and security”.
It remains to be seen whether SADC can contain DR Congo’s multiplicity of militias, which the forces before them, including the UN peacekeepers who have been in the country since 1999, have failed to do.
The UN mission, known as Monusco, is set to complete its withdrawal from DR Congo at the end of this year – after President Tshisekedi’s government deemed them to be ineffective.
Alongside cutting ties with forces from the UN and EAC, President Tshisekedi has threatened to go to war with Rwanda.
“If you re-elect me and Rwanda persists… I will request parliament and Congress to authorise a declaration of war. We will march on Kigali,” he said in December, in his final campaign rally.
Accusing Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group, President Félix Tshisekedi finds himself at the center of escalating regional tensions. A 2023 UN report, backed by the US, mirrors these allegations, though Rwanda vehemently denies them, countering with claims that DR Congo supports Hutu rebels staging attacks in Rwanda.
While President Tshisekedi has previously threatened to attack Rwanda, critics argue that these pledges were political maneuvers aimed at securing the nationalist vote. Despite Rwanda’s warning that those wishing for its destruction would “experience it instead,” Tshisekedi’s recent vow raises concerns about potential repercussions and the impact on regional stability.
Rwanda’s formidable military reputation, contrasted with DR Congo’s history of corruption and ill-discipline within its armed forces, underscores the complexity of such a situation. Analysts suggest that Tshisekedi may find it challenging to retract from the bellicose rhetoric employed during the election campaign.
In DR Congo, achieving peace extends beyond defeating armed groups like M23. Tshisekedi faces expectations to facilitate dialogue among the nation’s diverse ethnic groups, addressing longstanding disputes that previous leaders have struggled to resolve. Additionally, the political turmoil stemming from the disputed elections further complicates the landscape as Tshisekedi assumes office.