A recent poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that John Dramani Mahama, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, holds a significant lead over Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
According to the poll, Mahama commands the support of 51.1% of committed voters, while Bawumia lags behind with 37.3%.
Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako are polling at 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively, with other contenders collectively receiving 1.3%. In a separate unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama still leads with 49.3%, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%.
A noteworthy trend in the poll is the growing voter apathy within the NPP. Sixteen percent of potential non-voters identify as NPP supporters, in contrast to just 3% from the NDC.
Additionally, undecided voters and those who declined to reveal their party affiliations make up a combined 77% of non-voters, posing a serious challenge for the ruling party.
Among undecided voters, Mahama has a commanding 54% to Bawumia’s 23%, giving him a 31-point advantage. He also leads by 18 points among voters who chose not to disclose their party affiliation.
First-time voters also favour Mahama, giving him a 46% to 38% lead over Bawumia. This marks a shift from the July 2024 poll, where the two candidates were evenly matched.
Bawumia, on the other hand, has lost some ground with Muslim voters, a crucial demographic for his campaign, dropping 4% in support since July.
Additionally, the poll reveals that while 70% of those who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 remain loyal to Bawumia, 19% have now switched their allegiance to Mahama.
In key battleground regions such as Greater Accra and Central, Mahama has gained the backing of 20% and 37% of former NPP voters, respectively. Regionally, Mahama now leads in 12 regions, including Bono, while Bawumia remains ahead in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
The presence of independent candidates, Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten, has also complicated Bawumia’s standing, particularly in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.
In Ashanti, where the NPP aims for 85% of the vote, Bawumia currently holds 66%, while Mahama has 22%, and Bediako and Kyeremanten secure 7% and 4%, respectively. This division in support could be problematic for the NPP as election day nears.
The poll also highlights key issues driving voter sentiment.
The economy, jobs, and education were identified as the top concerns, with 70% of respondents listing the economy as their primary issue, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).
Furthermore, 62% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong path, with dissatisfaction most pronounced among NDC supporters (88%), floating voters (74%), and backers of other parties (76%). In contrast, 64% of NPP supporters feel the country is moving in the right direction.