The junta in Niger has challenged a Sunday deadline issued by West Africa’s regional coalition, which demanded the reinstatement of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, warning of the potential for a military intervention.
Defence leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) established a strategy last week, contemplating the possible application of force to reverse the coup that occurred on July 26. This strategy outlines the methods and timing for deploying forces, thus heightening concerns of additional conflicts in a region already grappling with a perilous Islamist insurgency.
The coalition is keeping the details confidential, and any intervention would necessitate approval from the leaders of member nations. Although several options, encompassing both military and alternative approaches, are conceivable, each comes with its own set of risks.
Ground Invasion
ECOWAS has deployed troops to regions of unrest in the past; however, this action is unprecedented in Niger and occurs in a region that is seldom so divided.
According to security analysts, assembling the specifics of a large-scale operation could span several weeks, and the prospect of an invasion carries substantial risks. These risks encompass the potential for being embroiled in a protracted conflict and exacerbating instability both in Niger and throughout the broader region.
Coup leader General Abdourahamane Tiani has experience, having previously served as a battalion commander for ECOWAS peacekeepers in Ivory Coast following a ceasefire between government and rebel forces in 2003. This background gives him insight into the nature of intervention missions.
Nevertheless, for some, the available options might seem quite limited.
“If they don’t go in, it will be a major problem of credibility. They have laid down a red line,” said Djiby Sow, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Dakar.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has told his government to prepare for options including the deployment of military personnel. Senegal has also said it could send troops.
But coup leaders in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali have expressed support for Niger’s junta, and other countries have their own security challenges.
Special Forces Operation
This option would involve a slimmer ground force that would be quicker to assemble. It would likely focus on seizing key security and administrative sites, rescuing Bazoum from house arrest and restoring his government, said Ikemesit Effiong, a senior researcher at SBM Intelligence consultancy in Nigeria. ECOWAS could seek intelligence support from U.S. and French forces inside Niger.
“The timeline would be shorter and the capability already exists in the region. An operation of that nature would be more realistic,” Effiong said.
Risks still abound, though. Foreign troops guarding sites in the centre of the capital Niamey could trigger violence in a city where hundreds have taken to the streets in support of the coup – and against foreign interference.
Aiding a counter coup
Niger is a huge, ethnically diverse country, and Bazoum won the 2021 election with 56% of the vote. It is not yet clear how much support various groups will give the new leaders.
Security analysts and diplomats have also noted apparent divisions among Niger’s armed forces, who may not all be united behind the coup.
Regional powers could exploit that.
“The only operationally feasible scenario I can imagine … would be in the form of more limited support for a ‘counter coup’ by Nigerien forces,” said Peter Pham, a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank and a former U.S. special envoy to the Sahel region. “I don’t see them coming in without that local element.”
Take stock, maintain sanctions
In comparison to the juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali, which have assumed power within the past three years, ECOWAS has adopted a more assertive stance against Niger.
However, there remains the possibility that ECOWAS might choose to uphold sanctions, refrain from direct military intervention, and instead advocate for a return to civilian governance following elections. The junta has expressed its willingness to engage in discussions about this option, although a specific timeframe has not been provided.
Even this course of action carries inherent regional risks. Imposing sanctions could undermine Niger’s economy, a reality that holds particular weight for one of the world’s most economically disadvantaged nations. Such a situation might inadvertently fuel support for the junta and extremist groups that extend financial support and shelter.