Niger is currently facing a complex and challenging situation with no apparent favorable solutions. The West is at risk of losing its strategic counter-terrorism bases in the region, and any military intervention by Ecowas could potentially trigger a civil war.
As the evacuation of French nationals proceeds, there are concerns about the subsequent abandonment of US and French military bases, leading to the withdrawal of their 2,500 troops involved in supporting Niger’s fight against jihadist insurgents.
Amidst this uncertainty, it is evident that the population of Niger will not benefit. Although the presence of Western forces was not universally popular, the country received significant financial aid and military assistance, which has now ceased.
The sudden appearance of Russian flags on the streets raises suspicions that Russia’s Wagner mercenary group might seize the opportunity to fill the void left by the departing troops.
For jihadist groups like Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and Islamic State, active in the Sahel region, this disruption and uncertainty serve as a strategic advantage, providing them with opportunities to exploit the situation.