On August 20, a former first lady and the son of a former president will face off in Guatemala’s presidential runoff, closing a tumultuous campaign that has alarmed observers about the future of the country as inequality and corruption fuel political unrest throughout the region.
The political establishment’s choice for continuity, Sandra Torres, will face off against the anti-corruption candidate, Bernardo Arévalo, who confounded expectations by placing second in the first round of voting in June.
In the first round of voting in June, Torres received 16% of the vote, while Arévalo received 11.8%. However, more than 24% of voters cast blank or ineffective ballots, and around 40% of registered voters stayed home, which observers have linked to high levels of dissatisfaction with Guatemala’s electoral system after the state disqualified opposition candidates who spoke out against corruption.
This year’s presidential cycle, which has been marred by accusations of governmental intervention and worries of democratic backsliding, has been reenergized by outsider candidate Arévalo’s unexpected run in the second round.
Those keeping an eye on Guatemala are cautiously optimistic that the popular will will win.
“Guatemalans desired a choice on the ballot that would allow them to reject the present political order. And happily, they now have that as one of two options, said Will Freeman of Arévalo’s progressive campaign to CNN. Freeman is a fellow in Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Rights organisations claim that after a United Nations-backed anti-corruption commission, known as CICIG, which is credited with helping to secure hundreds of convictions, was disbanded in 2019, corruption and impunity among the nation’s political class increased. In the years that have followed, numerous judges and prosecutors connected to the commission have been compelled to leave the nation due to high rates of starvation and poverty.
The exclusion of candidates who opposed corruption during this year’s election cycle raised concerns about democratic backsliding and drew considerable criticism from the US and other Western partners.
There have also been attempts to disqualify Arévalo, who previously held the position of ambassador to Spain. On the request of Rafael Curruchiche, the head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity and a person on the US State Department Engels list for “corrupt and undemocratic actors,” a Guatemalan court suspended his Movimiento Semilla party.
Curruchiche said that Movimiento Semilla was under investigation for allegedly forging citizen signatures; however, Arévalo has refuted this charge.
However, after a global uproar from the US, European Union, and a group of international funders known as the G13, which also includes the United Kingdom and Canada, he was ultimately permitted to run in the first round. Torres herself made the announcement that she will halt her political candidature in support of Movimiento Semilla.
Voters’ main concerns as they travel to the polls on August 20 are unemployment, corruption, and excessive living expenses. The political system in Guatemala is dysfunctional, and whatever what candidates promise, they always act in the same way once in office, according to Freeman.
With the help of Nayib Bukele, the president of neighbouring El Salvador, Torres has committed to toughen up the nation’s anti-crime laws and to boost social programmes. Since she worked to increase cash transfers and benefits as first lady more than ten years ago, she enjoys support from people in rural areas.
The 67-year-old is the leader of Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), one of the biggest political parties in the nation. She co-served as first lady of the nation from 2008 to 2011 with her ex-husband, the center-left former president Alvaro Colom.
Torres has run for president three times, losing to incumbent President Alejandro Giammattei in 2019. She has become one of the most recognisable figures in politics thanks to her time in the spotlight.
The former diplomat appears to be in the lead right now. Arévalo, a pragmatist from the center-left Movimiento Semilla party that he co-founded in 2017, is said to have the ability to capitalise on the general unhappiness with the present political establishment. His father, Juan José Arévalo, is credited with founding Guatemala’s social security system and served as the nation’s first democratically elected president in 1945.
As stated in his 100-day plan, if elected, fighting corruption will be the top priority. According to Freeman, Arévalo seems more concerned in ending pork barrel expenditures than in bringing criminal charges against dishonest individuals. The notion is that you should address corruption at its source and prevent non-competitive awarding of governmental contracts.
He has pledged to bring back the journalists, judges, and prosecutors who left the nation after the government shut down CICIG. Among them is Thelma Aldana, a former presidential candidate for his party who is renowned for her anti-corruption campaigns that resulted in the conviction of a former president. Aldana was not permitted to compete in the 2019 event.
Arévalo has stated that he wants Guatemala to establish relations with both Taipei and Beijing. Guatemala now recognises Taiwan.