The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government of Ethiopia are once again at war. The path toward discussions is at best unclear.
The southern boundaries of Tigray, where it borders the neighboring Amhara state at the town of Kobo, are where the first bullets were fired, according to both sides, early on August 24. Each team holds the other accountable for those shots.
What is clear – from information obtained from Western diplomats – is that the Ethiopian National Defence Force and its allied Amhara militia, known as the Fano, had mobilized a huge force to that location over prior weeks.
Meanwhile, mass conscription by the TPLF had swelled its ranks and it had devoted much of its resources to training and rearming, although it has denied forced recruitment.
It captured a huge arsenal from the federal army in last year’s fighting, and there are rumours that it had also bought new weapons from abroad.
Tensions were building. And yet, just a few weeks ago there was optimism that peace talks might soon be underway.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had authorized his deputy, Demeke Mekonnen, to head a peace committee, which began work in July.
Even before that, Mr Abiy had reportedly sent senior officials to secretly meet the TPLF.
In sessions in the Seychelles and Djibouti, it appears that an agreement was reached that Ethiopian forces would lift their blockade of Tigray, that Eritrea would withdraw the troops it had sent to support the government, and that the two sides would open full talks in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, hosted by President Uhuru Kenyatta. The first agenda item would be a permanent ceasefire.
Behind the scenes, the US was strongly backing these talks and was working in partnership with Kenya.
Visiting the Tigrayan capital Mekelle on 2 August, US Special Envoy Mike Hammer and envoys of the European Union and United Nations called for “a swift restoration of electricity, telecom, banking, and other basic services”, and “unfettered humanitarian access”, hinting that Mr Abiy had agreed to do these things.
However, the African Union envoy, Olusegun Obasanjo, remained silent on the siege. Briefing the envoys, Gen Obasanjo insisted that he was the sole mediator and surprised them by proposing to invite Ethiopia’s ally, Eritrea, to the talks.
Throughout July and August, Addis Ababa largely kept the blockade of essential services in place, permitting only a trickle of food, medicine and fertilizers for this season’s crops.
The TPLF is unimpressed by international praise for a five-month “humanitarian truce”, which allowed the World Food Programme (WFP) to resume operations in Tigray, albeit on a limited scale.
It insists that Addis Ababa’s continued blockade amounts to using hunger as a weapon of war and that the aid operations were pitifully insufficient.
The WFP says it was reaching “tens of thousands” of people. That was a start, but far short of the 4.8 million in need.
In an open letter to international leaders on the eve of the fighting, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said: “We are fast approaching the point at which we face death whichever way we turn. Our choice is only whether we perish by starvation or whether we die fighting for our rights and our dignity.”
With the sole exception of a French TV crew from the channel ARTE, there’s been no foreign news correspondent in Tigray since the TPLF regained control of most of the region in June 2021.
The few aid workers permitted to enter have not been able to collect basic data on child deaths, with the WFP spokeswoman conceding that “we just don’t know”, whether there was a famine or not.
In the short term, the humanitarian disaster can only deepen. Those limited aid operations are now at a halt. The first meager crops won’t be harvested for more than a month and fighting will cause further devastation.
The Ethiopian air force bombed Mekelle last week, hitting a kindergarten and killing seven, including three children, according to medical staff. The government denied the account and insisted it targeted military sites only. A second air strike was reported on Mekelle on Tuesday night.
IMAGE SOURCE,TIGRAI TV/REUTERSThe Tigrayans requisitioned 12 tankers of fuel from the UN, drawing irate condemnation from senior humanitarian officials.
The TPLF said they had loaned the UN fuel some months ago and were only reclaiming it, but the manner and timing of their act suggests it was not for delivering routine services, as their spokesman claimed.
The Ethiopian air force claimed to have shot down a plane bringing arms to Tigray from Sudanese airspace. The TPLF denied it.
On the morning of 1 September, the TPLF claimed that Eritrean artillery began a barrage of shells, while Ethiopian ground forces poised for a ground attack across the border. The Eritrean government has, characteristically, remained silent.
Fighting has also been reported in western Tigray towards the border with Sudan.
Through the fog of war, the news filtering out is that the battle for Kobo was huge. Tigrayan sources report a decisive victory against a massive force of 20 divisions, in which an enormous arsenal was captured. There’s no independent confirmation of this.
The Ethiopian government denies that it has suffered losses. It has also instructed the media to “carefully manage their reporting and access to information in times of crisis in order to reflect the country’s national interest”.
It said it had evacuated Kobo, and reports from the city of Woldia, 50km (30 miles) to the south, indicate that the army is nowhere to be seen.
So far, the TPLF has not moved its forces south, saying that it has no intention of repeating last year’s advance that reached within 200 km of the capital. In fact its spokesman made a point of denying reports that it had captured Woldia.