Look closely at a video of the crash between a ship from the Philippine coastguard and a ship from a Chinese maritime militia in the South China Sea on Sunday.
In simple words: In the middle of the ship, a Filipino TV crew is rushing to film a scene where someone talks to the camera while two parts of the ship hit each other.
Manila and Beijing have been fighting over underwater areas in the South China Sea for a long time.
However, over the past few months, something has been different. The arguments happening in the open sea are now being shown on TV for everyone to see. Philippine journalists have filmed a close encounter near a sensitive reef called Second Thomas Shoal, Ayungin Shoal, or Ren Ai Reef. This is the second time this has happened in weeks.
This isn’t a coincidence. The Philippine government wants to draw attention to China’s aggressive actions in controlling the waters that belong to Manila.
I believe we have noticed a big difference this year. Retired Colonel Raymond Powell from Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center describes it as a straightforward transparency campaign.
In January, the Philippine government started giving more videos of the incidents to local news outlets. During the summer, it started allowing more and more journalists, including the BBC, to go on their boats and planes that were going to the disputed waters.
Colonel Powell says that the situation has been made clear and visible, like turning on a light, to reveal China’s secret activities.
China seems to have been surprised by these new methods.
According to Oriana Skylar Mastro from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, there was a period where it seemed like the strategy was effective. Mastro explains, “We noticed a brief pause in China’s actions. ”
Beijing relaxed its grip, and Manila was able to bring in more supplies to a place it has on Second Thomas Shoal – an old landing ship from World War II called the Sierra Madre.
In 1999, someone purposely made the ship crash into the reef. Since then, a very small group of Filipino marines has been guarding alone on an old, decaying ship as it slowly breaks apart. In 2014, a group from BBC went on the ship. Even at that time, it was in really bad shape with big holes on its sides, and waves were splashing inside the building.
Most experts think that China has been happy to think and plan for the future. When China and the Philippines have had good relations, China’s coastguard has allowed supplies to be delivered to the Sierra Madre. When people are not getting along, they have stopped the ships from bringing more supplies.
However, Beijing believes that eventually the Philippines will have to remove their marines from the Sierra Madre ship because it won’t last much longer and will eventually collapse into the sea.
During the six years that former president Rodrigo Duterte was in power, it seemed that this belief was likely true. However, ever since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was elected last year, the Philippines’ foreign policy has completely changed direction.
President Marcos has changed President Duterte’s policy of befriending China and instead has gone back to being close with the United States. He is also speaking out loudly about China’s encroachments into Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
There is additional information available. Sources in Manila say that the Philippines has been transporting more than just food and water to the Sierra Madre during resupply runs. They say it has secretly been sending building supplies like cement and scaffolding. The goal is to fix the decaying ship.
ColPowell says it is difficult to see how they could make the ship last longer. I believe we are reaching a critical situation. The Sierra Madre is going to end soon. It could end very soon.
Maybe it is this new feeling of being in a hurry that is making both Manila and Beijing more forceful. Beijing is showing its strength again and is determined to destroy the Sierra Madre.
But if the Sierra Madre finally falls into the aquamarine waters of the South China Sea – or West Philippine Sea in Manila – what happens next.
Will Beijing come and try to take control of the reef like it has done in other parts of the South China Sea. Will Manila try to bring another ship to rest on Ayungin Shoal. And how will Washington respond.
No one knows, but that day may come sooner than expected.