Only France, Brazil, and Portugal have already qualified for the World Cup knockout rounds, with many other teams facing a nerve-wracking penultimate matchday in their quest to advance to Qatar’s round of 16.
Favorites entering the tournament With victories over Serbia and Switzerland, Brazil easily advanced from Group G, while France became the first team to retain its global championship since the Selecao in 2006 to do so.
Portugal’s win over Uruguay on Monday in Group H ensured their place in the round of 16, but other teams like England, Spain, Germany, and Argentina still need results on matchday three to advance.
Another well-known team that hasn’t confirmed their participation in the FIFA World Cup’s latter rounds is the Netherlands, and Belgium must defeat Croatia in Group F to avoid an early elimination.
Here, we examine the potential outcomes depending on the final decision about group-stage action in the Middle East.
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Group A
The Netherlands are essentially in charge of Group A and only need to avoid losing to Qatar, the group’s eliminated hosts.
If Ecuador defeats Senegal, who also needs to win, Louis van Gaal’s team will also go to the round of 16, but Aliou Cisse’s team will need Qatar to defeat the Netherlands to have any chance of competing.
Ecuador, who has performed admirably in their first two games, must defeat Senegal or draw to advance. However, if Qatar defeats the Netherlands, Gustavo Alfaro’s team may lose and not advance.
Group B
Against ferocious rivals Wales, England needs just to win or draw. However, as long as they avoid a four-goal loss against Wales, whose goal differential is six lower, the Three Lions would still advance.
Iran will automatically advance if they defeat the United States, who are aware that failure to defeat Carlos Queiroz’s team will result in their elimination from the competition.
Quieroz’s team might still finish first in Group B with a draw, but if Wales defeats Gareth Southgate’s England, goal differential would become important.
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Group C
All four teams still have a chance to advance from the intriguing Group C, with Argentina—one of the pre-tournament favorites—necessitating a victory over Poland to ensure a spot in the round of 16.
The Albiceleste, though, might advance with a draw and would be eliminated in that scenario if Mexico and Saudi Arabia also shared the points.
However, Argentina will lose if Lionel Scaloni’s team is stopped and Herve Renard’s team defeats El Tri. Goal differential will decide the winner if Mexico wins and Argentina draws.
Poland would go through by avoiding defeat, but would be knocked out by a loss coupled with a Saudi Arabia victory over Mexico, who must win to have any chance of remaining in the tournament.
Goal difference will be used to divide the two teams if Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia tie and if Mexico triumphs and Czeslaw Michniewicz’s team loses.
Group D
As long as Australia doesn’t beat Denmark and France doesn’t lose to Tunisia, the French will win Group D; otherwise, the Socceroos would tie France on points with six. France is already in the round of 16 draw.
Even though a win would send Australia through, Graham Arnold’s team would still advance to the knockout round with a tie, barring Tunisia’s victory over France, which would allow Jalel Kadri’s team to advance on goal differential.
Unless Tunisia defeats France, Denmark would qualify with a victory over Australia. In that case, the difference between the Carthage Eagles and Kasper Hjulmand’s team would be determined by goal differential or goals scored.
Onto the next! France’s 2-1 win over Denmark moves them onto the round of 16.
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Group E
Spain are the favourites to progress from Group E, requiring a win or draw against Japan. Defeat would see Luis Enrique’s side still go through on goal difference, unless Germany lose to Costa Rica.
Germany must pick up three points to stay in contention and would qualify as long as Spain defeat Japan, though a draw in the latter game or a win for Hajime Moriyasu’s men would see goal difference needed.
A win for Japan over Spain would take Moriyasu’s side through, while a draw – coupled with a stalemate for Germany – would also see the Samurai Blue make the knockout stage.
Costa Rica would earn a last-16 spot with victory and a point would also take them through if Spain overcome Japan. A draw in both games or a defeat for Fernando Suarez’s side sees them eliminated.
Group F
Croatia will pass through Group F if they avoid defeat against Belgium, who require victory against the 2018 runners-up to guarantee a place in the round of 16.
Such a win for Belgium would leave Croatia needing already eliminated Canada to overcome Morocco, with goal difference coming into play to separate Zlatko Dalic’s side from the Atlas Lions.
A draw is likely not enough for Belgium. They would need Morocco to lose to Canada and then rely on goal difference, though Walid Regragui’s men (+2) hold the advantage over Roberto Martinez’s side (-1) in the decisive metric.
Morocco would progress with victory over Canada, while a defeat would see Regragui’s side reliant on Belgium beating Croatia for goal difference to be decisive between Dalic’s men and the Atlas Lions for second.
Group G
Brazil have secured knockout football and will finish as Group G winners with anything other than defeat against Cameroon, who need victory against Tite’s side and results to go their way to make the last 16.
Rigobert Song’s men would be eliminated if they do not win, though victory is not guaranteed to secure progression as Switzerland could play out a high-scoring draw with Serbia to go through on goals scored, which is used if sides cannot be separated on goal difference – Cameroon are currently on -1 and Switzerland level in the latter metric.
The somewhat expected scenario of Cameroon losing to Brazil would see Serbia and Switzerland become a winner-takes-all clash.
Dragan Stojkovic’s side need victory to progress in that instance, while a draw would be enough for Switzerland. Goal difference would be required if Serbia (-2) and Cameroon (-1) both win their final encounters.
Round of 16 ✅
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Group H
Portugal are already through and would top Group H by avoiding defeat against South Korea, who could still make a late charge for the round-of-16 stage should the result between Uruguay and Ghana go their way.
The permutations are straightforward for Uruguay and South Korea, who must win to avoid elimination, though qualification is not assured even with victory.
Both teams would be level on four points with victories, again leading to goal difference to separate. Yet, if Ghana beat Uruguay then South Korea’s result against Portugal will prove irrelevant for Paulo Bento’s side.
A draw for Ghana and a win for South Korea would also see goal difference required to split the two sides, with Bento’s men trailing the Black Stars by one in that metric, which could mean goals scored comes into it.
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