S&P Global Ratings announced on Friday that it has downgraded Egypt to B-/B with a stable outlook. Previously, the agency had given Egypt a B/B rating, and in April, it had shifted its outlook on the nation to negative.
The downgrade is a result of Egypt’s ongoing challenges in implementing monetary and structural reforms, according to S&P.
The agency also pointed out that interest expenditures now account for approximately 40% of Egypt’s government revenues, which could pose a potential threat to the sustainability of its debt.
“The stable outlook balances the risk that the Egyptian authorities may be unable to finance high external debt redemptions or address the country’s foreign currency shortage against the possibility of an acceleration of key monetary and economic reforms that would help bridge Egypt’s large external financing gap,” S&P said.
S&P Global Ratings has forecasted that Egypt’s economic growth will average around 4% over the next three years. However, they noted that this projection is sensitive to factors such as exchange rates, inflation trends, and the potential impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on tourism.
Additionally, Fitch Ratings downgraded Egypt’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B+’ in the first half of 2023, with a negative outlook.
Fitch expressed concerns about Egypt’s increased external financing risk, driven by high financing requirements, constrained external financing conditions, and the susceptibility of Egypt’s financing plan to investor sentiment.
These challenges arise amid uncertainty in exchange rate trends and reduced external liquidity buffers.
“We see a risk that a further delayed transition to a flexible exchange rate will further undermine confidence, and, potentially, delay the IMF programme.
“The rating action also captures a marked deterioration of public debt metrics, including a renewed deterioration in government interest costs/revenue, which, if not reversed, would put medium-term debt sustainability at risk”, Fitch said in its rating note.
Analysts have pointed out that there is growing uncertainty regarding Egypt’s capacity to fulfill its external financing requirements. This uncertainty is attributed to the ongoing limitations in terms of market access and the lack of confidence from the market in the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) new exchange rate system, which has impeded the inflow of foreign currency (FC).
The incomplete transition to a flexible exchange rate regime has resulted in renewed shortages of foreign currency in February 2023. Although the official exchange rate has stabilized, this followed a series of devaluations that had caused the Egyptian pound’s value against the US dollar to decrease by approximately 50% compared to the beginning of 2022.
“In our view, the stabilisation partly reflects the reluctance of market participants to transact in the foreign exchange (FX) market, given high uncertainty around the future exchange rate level, and also interventions by public sector banks, further damaging confidence in the durably flexible exchange rate regime and the value of the currency”.
As long as there is a significant need for external financing, Fitch believes that the exchange rate will continue to decline before stabilizing in the fiscal year that ends in June 2024.
Fitch states that the country’s need for external financing will be more difficult in FY24 as a result of the government’s increasing external debt maturities, which will total approximately USD7.2 billion in FY24 compared to USD4.3 billion in FY23.
This includes USD2.1 billion in maturities related to Eurobonds (up from USD0.8 billion in FY23). But even after a significant decline in 2022, external liquidity buffers are still inadequate.