Voters in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, will head to the polls this week to select their next president amid mounting unhappiness in the country due to worsening insecurity and economic hardship. Will any of the frontrunners, most of whom have been in the political system for decades, be able to turn the country around?
Nigeria’s outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari is stepping down after nearly eight years in power amid a backdrop of chaos and widespread unrest, as many people are unable to access the cash they need to buy food because of a botched roll-out of new banknotes.
But the cash crisis is not the only problem Nigerians face, with the last year being marked by struggle and tragedy, including high inflation and deadly attacks by gunmen against innocent civilians.
Mr Buhari’s supporters say he has done his best and highlight achievements, such as his work on infrastructure projects and attempts to combat violent extremism. But even his own wife, Aisha Buhari, has apologised to the Nigerian people for falling short of their expectations.
So whoever wins the election will not have an easy job.
Who is running for president?
A total of 18 candidates are campaigning for the top job, but only three have a realistic chance of winning, according to opinion polls. Only one of the 18 is a woman.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 70, is standing for the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) party. Known as a political godfather in the south-west region, he wields huge influence but has been dogged by allegations of corruption over the years and poor health, both of which he denies. Some say his campaign slogan Emi Lokan, which means “it’s my turn [to be president]” in the Yoruba language, shows a sense of entitlement.
Atiku Abubakar, 76, is running on behalf of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). He has run for the presidency five times before – all of which he has lost. Most of his career has been in the corridors of power, having worked as a top civil servant, vice-president under Olusegun Obasanjo and a prominent businessman. Just like Mr Tinubu, he has been accused of corruption and cronyism, which he denies.
Peter Obi, 61, is hoping to break up the two-party system which has dominated Nigeria since the end of military rule in 1999 and is running for the little known Labour Party. Although he was in the PDP until last year, he is seen as a relatively fresh face and enjoys fervent support on social media and among Nigeria’s youth. The wealthy businessman served as governor of the south-eastern Anambra State from 2006 to 2014. His backers, known as the “OBIdients” say he is the only candidate with integrity, but his critics argue that a vote for Obi is wasted as he is unlikely to win.
Who is likely to win?
Convention suggests a candidate from one of the two main parties will win – Mr Atiku or Mr Tinubu. But Mr Obi’s supporters are hoping he can spring a surprise if they can mobilise the large youth vote to back him.
When is the election?
It is due to take place on Saturday 25 February 2023. If there is no clear winner, a second round will be held within three weeks. There will also be elections for the country’s powerful state governors on Saturday 11 March.
The head of the election commission has dismissed suggestions that the vote could be delayed because of insecurity.
When will the election results be announced?
In the last two presidential elections the winner has been known on the third day after voting.
But votes will be counted as soon as voting ends on Saturday 25 February. Those who stay behind at their polling station will have the result announced to them, but it is a long process before all the results work their way up to Abuja from the tens of thousands of polling units across the country.
BVAS might speed up the process this year, but Inec-appointed officials will still have to travel to Abuja from the 36 states with hard copies to be read aloud.
Only then will the Inec chairman announce a winner – or that a second round is needed.
How does the election work?
In order to win, a candidate has to obtain the highest number of votes nationwide, and more than a quarter of ballots cast in at least two-thirds of Nigeria’s states.
If none of the candidates manage this, there will be a second round run-off between the top two candidates within 21 days.
What are the main issues?
Reducing insecurity is one of the key concerns of voters, in a country which is currently experiencing a kidnapping-for-ransom crisis, battling militant Islamists groups in parts of the north and a separatist insurgency in the south-east.
Two of the most shocking cases last year were a mass shooting at a Catholic Church in Owo and the storming by gunmen of a passenger train in which dozens of people were killed or kidnapped.
President Buhari says he has fulfilled his promise to “frontally and courageously tackle terrorism”, but many Nigerians feel the country is still not safe.
The economy is another area of concern. Inflation now stands at 21.8%, according to the latest figures released this month. This rising cost of living has left many families struggling to make ends meet, with local media describing the situation as “dire”.
Unemployment is also a major problem, leaving many graduates fearful that they may not find work even after years of university study, which has prompted many to try and leave the country. Latest figures from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics show that 33% of the population is unemployed – jumping to 42.5% for younger adults.
Despite being a major oil producer, four out of 10 Nigerians live below the poverty line and “lack education and access to basic infrastructure, such as electricity, safe drinking water, and improved sanitation,” according to the World Bank.
Many of the candidates have put these issues at the centre of their campaigns.
But these problems have been mounting for several years, leaving some Nigerians sceptical about whether whoever wins the election will actually be able to fix them. Despite the large number of registered voters – 93.5 million – concerns persist about apathy and how many people will actually show up on the day to cast their ballot.
With almost 40% of registered voters under 34, the vote has been called the “election of young people” by elections chief Mahmood Yakubu.
Source: BBC