Ghana is poised to achieve its first current account surplus in two decades during 2023, according to predictions from, a UK-based firm, Fitch Solutions.
Fitch Solutions anticipates that Ghana’s current account will show a surplus of 1.3% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year, a remarkable turnaround from the 2.1% GDP deficit recorded in 2022.
The revision in Fitch Solutions’ 2023 forecast comes in response to unexpectedly low import growth during the first half of the year. A 13.0% year-on-year contraction in merchandise imports, driven by subdued domestic demand and reduced global commodity prices, has contributed to this shift.
While exports also declined by 7.2%, the trade surplus rose to $299.6 million, up from $245.7 million during the first half of 2022.
Bank of Ghana (BoG) data reveals that the overall current account balance achieved a surplus of $0.8 billion in the initial half of 2023, contrasting with a $1.1 billion deficit during the corresponding period in 2022.
Fitch Solutions expects this robust trade surplus to persist in the second half of 2023 due to ongoing import contractions and weakened domestic conditions, including elevated inflation levels and reduced purchasing power.
The firm also indicates that the current restrictive monetary conditions will hinder businesses’ capacity to finance growth ventures, leading to delayed corporate expansion plans and consequently less demand for imported capital inputs.