Fitch Solutions has projected that Ghana’s economic growth will increase from 2.9% in 2023 to a three-year peak of 5.5% in 2024.
The most recent data from the Ghana Statistical Service indicates that the economy expanded by a robust 6.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, following a solid 4.8% growth in the first quarter.
The UK-based firm credited this acceleration in the second quarter primarily to stronger industrial output, particularly in mining and quarrying, along with a continued rebound in the construction sector.
In terms of expenditure, growth was bolstered by an 8.5% rise in private consumption and a 12.6% increase in exports.
Looking forward to the second half of 2024, Fitch anticipates that growth will remain strong, though it will slow from the high levels observed in the second quarter.
This outlook is underpinned by two main factors. First, the robust export growth witnessed in the second quarter is not expected to persist in the latter half of the year.
This surge was partially driven by a recovery in international oil sales, fueled by strong crude production in the first half of 2024.
However, this recovery seems to have peaked, which may lead to slower export growth in the upcoming months.
Secondly, Fitch predicts that the growth in private consumption will also moderate.
In 2023, private consumption surged by 18.7% and 19.2% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, creating a high base that will likely result in slower growth during the second half of 2024.
Despite this, Fitch noted that robust consumer fundamentals suggest that healthy spending will continue.
Data from the Bank of Ghana revealed a 21.1% year-on-year increase in mobile money transactions in June 2024, along with a 42.5% rise in new payment card issuances.