The World Bank has recently published its April 2024 Commodity Outlook Report, projecting a significant decrease in global food prices for 2024, with an estimated 6 per cent decline, followed by an additional 4 per cent drop in 2025.
This reduction is primarily attributed to lower prices for grains, oils, and meals, while other food categories are anticipated to experience price increases in 2024.
However, 2025 is anticipated to witness widespread decreases in food prices.
The grains price index is expected to decrease by 11 per cent in 2024, fueled by increased global grain supplies. Wheat prices are predicted to fall by 15 per cent in 2024 due to heightened production, with an additional 2 per cent decline projected for 2025.
These forecasts coincide with intense export competition and slightly higher production, counterbalanced by somewhat increased consumption and the lowest end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio in eight years.
Global maize production is poised to reach a record high in the 2023–24 seasons, while global rice production in 2023-24 remains steady, accompanied by a decrease in the stock-to-use ratio to its lowest level in three years.
Rice prices are expected to climb by 8 per cent (year-on-year) in 2024 due to tight global markets and export restrictions imposed by India.
In the Ghanaian context, a reversal in food disinflation is evident as the food inflation rate surged from 27.0 per cent in February to 29.6 per cent in March 2024.
This uptick in food inflation occurs amidst persistent concerns about food insecurity in the sub-Saharan region.
As global food prices are projected to decline, it remains to be observed how these developments will impact Ghana’s food market and the overall food security situation in the country.